Sell Signal On Bitcoin Yes, But Short? No Way.

19 de jan. de 2020

#Bitcoin order flow has produced a bearish outside bar within the low 9K region which is a minor resistance area. This can be interpreted as a sell signal, especially if followed by an inside bar over the next day or two. In this analysis, I am going to cover HOW we interpret this kind of price action relative to our LONG only swing trade strategy. My objective is to help the community better understand how order flow works and recognize potential opportunities that are regularly overlooked by the herd.

1. The low 9K area is a minor resistance relative to the bearish price structure established by the 10,300 high to 6550 low. It is within reason to expect some selling pressure to unfold and is precisely why we placed our third target at 9250 (which we missed by 50 pts).

2. Relative to OUR strategy, the current bearish outside bar is a sell signal which for us is a prompt to lock in profits, NOT to go SHORT. Since we are a strong hand, and have reduced our original position by 2/3's up to this point, we will opt to stay in our swing trade long and ride out the noise. Sell signals carry much less weight on the time frame that we follow in a BULLISH momentum environment. Momentum and trend are two SEPARATE and distinct variables.

3. IF the 8500 support area is compromised, 8130 is the next support where we will anticipate a bullish reversal pattern. IF 8K is decisively taken out, then the 7200 area is the next respective level to watch for reversals. Even though recent momentum has been bullish, that does NOT mean we are in a strong trend on THIS time frame. That is why we continue to operate within the limited expectations of a RANGE BOUND market (which means we expect lots of fake outs, limited movements and set more conservative targets).

It can be argued that the 9200 area is another "lower high" which will attract lots of small time frame bears who do not know how to weight the recent order flow developments. More bears are good because in order to make a market, someone has to be willing to take the other side of the trade. These are the participants who will help price squeeze into the high 9Ks when they are forced to cover. IF price takes out 10,300 then a strong argument can be made for the broader Wave 3 being in play (which can lead price to 14K and higher over the coming months).