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HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!
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So we have now broken the bull structure of Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The price has now made a lower low.
Further more and quite frankly the most concerning big factor is we have a Class A Bearish Divergence. The RSI is making Lower highs while the price action is making Higher highs. This is normally a strong sign that the upwards momentum is slowing down and it is likely that there will be a decline in price.
Is this an indication that a bear market is coming though? Too early to tell in my opinion. In order for us to confirm we're in a bear trend we'd need to be making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Feel free to refer to my Part 2 video on Trends in the "Intro to Technical Analysis" series.
The big question right now is obviously, What do we do now? Well, We need to wait and see if 1) The daily candle closes above the most recent HL line. There is still 11 hours left on the day at the time of writing this. 2) The $45000 - $43000 zone acts like a strong support. If we do continue to decline pay close attention to this zone. 3) If the price makes a Lower High and another Lower then it might be a strong indication that we're heading towards a bear market.
Closing words:
- if you're a swing trader, don't rush into trades right now. Be careful.
- Anytime the price declines rapidly and you see your portfolio in red, it is a good time to re-evaluate your strategy. Ask yourself why you entered certain trades. What was your mindset going in? Did you say "I just bought ADA, XRP and Doge because I believe they're going to 10x - 100x in 3 years time. They're gonna be so big...... Oh shit, everything is red, I'm in minus. Should I sell?". If you said something like that to yourself then I got some news for you, you're either not as much of a long-term HODLer as you thought you were or you didn't believe in these projects as much as you convinced yourself you did. Re-evaluate your style and your decisions as to why you put your money where you did.
- If you're a day trader, start looking for opportunities to short.
Personal opinion:
The bearish divergence and the breaking of the HH and HL structure is telling me the price is going decline. I'm not jumping the gun and saying "oh shit we're entering a bear market". But my gut feeling is telling me we're going down to the $45000 - $43000 zone before we meet some support.
As always, nothing is certain in Technical Analysis. A lot of it is also Self-fulfilling prophecy. Do your own research. I am not your financial advisor.
Further more and quite frankly the most concerning big factor is we have a Class A Bearish Divergence. The RSI is making Lower highs while the price action is making Higher highs. This is normally a strong sign that the upwards momentum is slowing down and it is likely that there will be a decline in price.
Is this an indication that a bear market is coming though? Too early to tell in my opinion. In order for us to confirm we're in a bear trend we'd need to be making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Feel free to refer to my Part 2 video on Trends in the "Intro to Technical Analysis" series.
The big question right now is obviously, What do we do now? Well, We need to wait and see if 1) The daily candle closes above the most recent HL line. There is still 11 hours left on the day at the time of writing this. 2) The $45000 - $43000 zone acts like a strong support. If we do continue to decline pay close attention to this zone. 3) If the price makes a Lower High and another Lower then it might be a strong indication that we're heading towards a bear market.
Closing words:
- if you're a swing trader, don't rush into trades right now. Be careful.
- Anytime the price declines rapidly and you see your portfolio in red, it is a good time to re-evaluate your strategy. Ask yourself why you entered certain trades. What was your mindset going in? Did you say "I just bought ADA, XRP and Doge because I believe they're going to 10x - 100x in 3 years time. They're gonna be so big...... Oh shit, everything is red, I'm in minus. Should I sell?". If you said something like that to yourself then I got some news for you, you're either not as much of a long-term HODLer as you thought you were or you didn't believe in these projects as much as you convinced yourself you did. Re-evaluate your style and your decisions as to why you put your money where you did.
- If you're a day trader, start looking for opportunities to short.
Personal opinion:
The bearish divergence and the breaking of the HH and HL structure is telling me the price is going decline. I'm not jumping the gun and saying "oh shit we're entering a bear market". But my gut feeling is telling me we're going down to the $45000 - $43000 zone before we meet some support.
As always, nothing is certain in Technical Analysis. A lot of it is also Self-fulfilling prophecy. Do your own research. I am not your financial advisor.
Nota
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Nota
Almost a month later and here we are. Price dropped to 45.1k
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