2024-08-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Sideways again but the first close above the flat daily 20ema and bulls will try to close the bear gap again. Can go both sides but shorts are slightly favored at the top of trading ranges.
comment: Bulls keep buying the fn dip and we are making higher lows again. The bear gap to 64000 is open for now and bulls next and only target. If they manage to close it, they are free to melt up to 68000 again. Bears need to prevent them from doing that and the past 13 days they succeeded. The daily 20ema is as flat as it gets, so odds favor mean reversion trading but this was also the first bullish close above the daily 20ema since end of July. If bears come around, shorts are favored but until then, I am neutral and wait. Buying high in a trading range is a losing strategy.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 56000 - 62000
bull case: Bulls are making higher highs inside this trading range and are at important resistance. They need the break above 62000 and strong momentum for a try at getting to 64000. I do think overall market conditions currently favor the bulls but there are no very good technical reasons why this breakout attempt could succeed, other than the mentioned above.
Invalidation is below 58000.
bear case: Bears only objective now is to keep this below 62000. They see a 2 week trading range in a neutral market and we are at the highs, where the odds favor the bears to reverse it. If bears fail to keep the bear gap open, they will probably give up until 68000.
Invalidation is above 63000.
short term: Neutral until bears come around. Want to see prices below 59000 again and a minor bull trend line break. If bulls print strong bars above 62000, I could consider longs if the momentum is strong enough.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Market made higher lows since Monday so buying near previous lows was decent. On the 1h chart the strong break above 60000 was an obvious long too.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Sideways again but the first close above the flat daily 20ema and bulls will try to close the bear gap again. Can go both sides but shorts are slightly favored at the top of trading ranges.
comment: Bulls keep buying the fn dip and we are making higher lows again. The bear gap to 64000 is open for now and bulls next and only target. If they manage to close it, they are free to melt up to 68000 again. Bears need to prevent them from doing that and the past 13 days they succeeded. The daily 20ema is as flat as it gets, so odds favor mean reversion trading but this was also the first bullish close above the daily 20ema since end of July. If bears come around, shorts are favored but until then, I am neutral and wait. Buying high in a trading range is a losing strategy.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 56000 - 62000
bull case: Bulls are making higher highs inside this trading range and are at important resistance. They need the break above 62000 and strong momentum for a try at getting to 64000. I do think overall market conditions currently favor the bulls but there are no very good technical reasons why this breakout attempt could succeed, other than the mentioned above.
Invalidation is below 58000.
bear case: Bears only objective now is to keep this below 62000. They see a 2 week trading range in a neutral market and we are at the highs, where the odds favor the bears to reverse it. If bears fail to keep the bear gap open, they will probably give up until 68000.
Invalidation is above 63000.
short term: Neutral until bears come around. Want to see prices below 59000 again and a minor bull trend line break. If bulls print strong bars above 62000, I could consider longs if the momentum is strong enough.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Market made higher lows since Monday so buying near previous lows was decent. On the 1h chart the strong break above 60000 was an obvious long too.
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Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.