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Make or break for 2019 BTC bullrun now?

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COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Downwards channel on 1h chart. On higher timeframes, rejected twice from 11800 now. If it makes the downtrend point 11500 it could avert capitulation. It would need to go one better and break 11800 to resume bullish run.

Would have to think it’s looking bearish on HTF, question is when to short. Is 11500 too early?
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