Bitcoin headed much lower

5 de fev. de 2018

A confluence of factors are merging to batter bitcoin into a bear market. Two have happened today, breaking 200 day MA and 30 day MA breaking 100 day MA. The third was the breaking of the bull market trend line which occurred Feb 1st.

It depends where you start the Fibonacci retracement from, but I have started it in this instance from $734, which is the low on Coinbase on Jan 12th of 2017, less than 13 months ago. The major retracement levels seem to line up nicely with major support/resistance levels going back or forward in time.

All of this downward pressure should have been more clear given the gap in the daily chart on Dec 20th-Dec 21st from 15381.85 to 14829.75. This gap was perpetuated intentionally by someone with an algorithm programmed to the millisecond in order to pull it off so perfectly. Just go back and check the 4 hour chart on coinbase for verification. The market did go back and fill this gap but never recovered past previous shoulder levels set in place the first 10 days of December.

It is my estimation that almost all cryptocurrencies are in major head and shoulder retracements. I do believe with this drop in prices, ethereum will surpass bitcoin in total market cap by the end of the year, potentially the next few months.

I would look for bitcoin to show some support around $5000-$6000 levels and potentially pop up 50% but fail somewhere in the $7500-$9000 range. The next move lower after this pop would be the last and I would see it ending anywhere between $750-$3000. The end will be determined by the sentiment of market participants, global economic climate, regulatory concerns and liquidity of market participants. From there it will probably trade sideways to up for a while but a lot of damage will be done and time will be needed to get retail. investors involved again.

If the global central banks start printing money again, due to the impending storms in global stock markets, there could be a swift move higher in anticipation of higher inflation. Traders will take clues from 2008-2009 to weather this years climate.

6 de fev. de 2018

Nota

With the 115% gain in the VIX today I would say there is a high probability of black swan type event unfolding this week.

New fed chairman Jerome Powell will be tested immediately.

7 de fev. de 2018

Nota

I would fade this rally. Up almost 50% from bottom of yesterday's dump, this rally will be stalling out. I wouldn't expect BTC to go above $8800 on coinbase/gdax. Keep in mind, markets like round number lows, usually an even number or a 5. A signal would be a low of $3000 or $5555. Hopefully, once bitcoin finds a low, most of the junk "payment" coins that have been minted in the past 6 months will be deposited in the trash where they belong.

Also, if a 5% drop in the stock market can make volatility explode 100+% in a day, look out below. The fed has already signaled the fed "put" is way lower then yesterday. Expect the market to test those waters.

8 de fev. de 2018

Nota

Bitcoin has bounced hard off of yesterday's close. A break above yesterday's high, 8650, should carry the market up to 9200. If bitcoin trades above 9500, the bearish sentiment will be greatly diminished. I still think bitcoin needs to settle above 10500 area two days in a row for the bear market to be confirmed over.

10 de fev. de 2018

Nota

Looks like the top of this move is in place. Huge turnarounds today across the crypto world. Unless there is a rally back closer to the highs of the day then I would say the bearishness will resume.

I expect bitcoin to trade down to 6550 region in about two days. I would then expect to see a bounce up to around 7800 then back down to last weeks lows or further. There is a chance bitcoin breaks the 7800 region in the rally and tests 9500 Fibonacci level before resuming the bear market.

Ultimately I am thinking a low around 3000 will conclude the bear market. The line in the sand will have to be 2975.01, dating back to September 15th of last year. If that point is crossed, then you could see a full retracement down to 734 region. I don't feel this point will be crossed and I will be scale buying down to 3000 area.

16 de fev. de 2018

Nota

Bitcoin has obviously broken out. Litecoin is to thank for this action. A major resistance will be approaching soon - 11150. That is the high of the bar from Jan 30th, very near the 38% retracement of this entire move, and it will be testing the channel of this bear market. A settle above this level for more than one day will probably mark the end of the bear market. I still think bitcoin is not done going down, at least to test the 5873 low made on Feb 6th.

I am of the opinion there is some high level shenanigans going on with stocks and vix. I will be watching those markets carefully to look for signs.

17 de fev. de 2018

Nota

Feb 22nd looking like it is going to be a very important day for this market. Fibonacci meets major trendline right around 11250. It is also the same distance as when the market bottomed on its first wave on Dec 22nd to the top of its second wave on Jan 7th. On the day, the market started its 3rd wavedown and bottomed on Feb 6th.

I would be looking for this 4th wave up to fizzle out and the 5th wave down to begin on Feb 22nd. This should be the final wave down of this bear trend. Where does it stop is the question? 8500, 7000, 6000, 4500, 3000? I will be looking on the chart for places where it hits a major support level and bounces off it hard to the upside. It will give market participants a second time to buy but the initial low should stand the second time down. In my opinion, then you know there is a major low in place. Other signals would be all major coins hitting bottom at the same time, stocks also making a low and turning around. Some fundamental data might be central banks whispering of intervention, major tech acceptance or announcement within industry, a major buying coming in and then being revealed.