BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 165)
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Previous analysis/position: 75% chance we retest $6,800 | 25% chance $6,500 resistance holds and selloff continues | Currently short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:BTC | ETH:USD short from $450 was covered this morning at $305
Patterns: Descending triangle & bear channel
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,075 | R = $6,152
BTCUSDSHORTS: Dark cloud cover, at resistance | 50:50 long short ratio
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0736
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -10.10% | 26 = -13.21%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = 11.56% | 128 = -18.96%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Daily and 3d hammer forming at support
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan - Sen finally starting to converge with Kijun-Sen. Should make a bearish cross here soon.
TD’ Sequential: Trading at $6,127 TDST. R-3 < R-2. 3d on an R-4. Weekly finally price flipped, following a 3 candle correction.
Visible Range: POC over last 24 hours = $6,113 | Low volume nodes from $6,160 - $6,320 | POC over last 5 days = $6,461 | POC over last month = $7,400 w LVN’s at $6,800 and $7,200
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -5.10% | 1w = -12.50% | 2w = -25.42% | -2.66%
Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily w room to fall on 3d and weekly.
Trendline: Connects 3/6 to 5/5
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Down = $6,117
On Balance Volume: Continues to make lower lows while the price remains above support. Very significant bear div’
ADX: ADX appears to be finding support at 25 while -DI and +DI are diverging in a bearish manner
Chaikin Money Flow: Just made a higher low, now testing -0.05
RSI (30 setting): Falling w price/ no div’
Stoch: Just recrossed below 10 after getting to all time low territory. Generally the biggest moves happen when the stoch gets stuck at the below 20 or above 80. Will be watching this closely as a sign that we can continue falling even though we are already oversold.
Summary: Feels like we are hanging on by a thread and the last remaining bulls are getting exhausted. The 12 EMA strongly suggests that we should revert to the mean through a bounce or days of consolidation. However the Stoch recrossing below 10 feels more significant.
I am prepared for all hell to break loose over the next 1-48 hours and I hope that you are too. We have not had any real volatility since the beginning of Feburary. If $6,100 breaks down then that should change. Will be watching for a large spike in volume to confirm that the move has the strength I am expecting.
Alts are in a much weaker position than BTC' in my opinion (both technically and fundamentally). They are threatening to break down their own descending triangles and they will not have near the same level of support below. The risk:reward is also more favorable than shorting BTC'. Not to mention it just feels better shorting Bitcoin' Cash'!
During times like this I am certain to thoroughly prepare so that I don’t second guess myself in the heat of the moment or get greedy. I write down the exact position size, price points, stop losses and leverage amount before making an entry. What gets written down is gospel and that makes it much easier to fire confidently when the time is right.
Bitcoin Cash TA
Cardano TA
Ethereum TA
Previous analysis/position: 75% chance we retest $6,800 | 25% chance $6,500 resistance holds and selloff continues | Currently short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:BTC | ETH:USD short from $450 was covered this morning at $305
Patterns: Descending triangle & bear channel
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,075 | R = $6,152
BTCUSDSHORTS: Dark cloud cover, at resistance | 50:50 long short ratio
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0736
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -10.10% | 26 = -13.21%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = 11.56% | 128 = -18.96%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Daily and 3d hammer forming at support
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan - Sen finally starting to converge with Kijun-Sen. Should make a bearish cross here soon.
TD’ Sequential: Trading at $6,127 TDST. R-3 < R-2. 3d on an R-4. Weekly finally price flipped, following a 3 candle correction.
Visible Range: POC over last 24 hours = $6,113 | Low volume nodes from $6,160 - $6,320 | POC over last 5 days = $6,461 | POC over last month = $7,400 w LVN’s at $6,800 and $7,200
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -5.10% | 1w = -12.50% | 2w = -25.42% | -2.66%
Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily w room to fall on 3d and weekly.
Trendline: Connects 3/6 to 5/5
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Down = $6,117
On Balance Volume: Continues to make lower lows while the price remains above support. Very significant bear div’
ADX: ADX appears to be finding support at 25 while -DI and +DI are diverging in a bearish manner
Chaikin Money Flow: Just made a higher low, now testing -0.05
RSI (30 setting): Falling w price/ no div’
Stoch: Just recrossed below 10 after getting to all time low territory. Generally the biggest moves happen when the stoch gets stuck at the below 20 or above 80. Will be watching this closely as a sign that we can continue falling even though we are already oversold.
Summary: Feels like we are hanging on by a thread and the last remaining bulls are getting exhausted. The 12 EMA strongly suggests that we should revert to the mean through a bounce or days of consolidation. However the Stoch recrossing below 10 feels more significant.
I am prepared for all hell to break loose over the next 1-48 hours and I hope that you are too. We have not had any real volatility since the beginning of Feburary. If $6,100 breaks down then that should change. Will be watching for a large spike in volume to confirm that the move has the strength I am expecting.
Alts are in a much weaker position than BTC' in my opinion (both technically and fundamentally). They are threatening to break down their own descending triangles and they will not have near the same level of support below. The risk:reward is also more favorable than shorting BTC'. Not to mention it just feels better shorting Bitcoin' Cash'!
During times like this I am certain to thoroughly prepare so that I don’t second guess myself in the heat of the moment or get greedy. I write down the exact position size, price points, stop losses and leverage amount before making an entry. What gets written down is gospel and that makes it much easier to fire confidently when the time is right.
Bitcoin Cash TA
Cardano TA
Ethereum TA
Nota
Wanted to point out how helpful the ADX has been for determining the exhaustion of a major move. Nota
I do not expect this bounce to get past $6,579
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emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.