Deep Bull-Trap Correction Underway?
Atualizado
This chart idea updates the previous idea with new Elliott Wave counts to include the recent run from the 8.5k local high (which turned out to be the end of wave 3 instead of wave 5) to the 9.1k high. This would then put the 9.1k high as a truncated 5th wave. It is still possible that we could move higher to complete a 5th wave with a target in the high 9k’s, but that is looking less likely with the strength of the recent downward movement that has broken outside the lower bounds of the ascending wedge in green.
One thing to note is that every major high and subsequent deep correction that has occurred since the 2017 high has exhibited 1) a high, 2) a rapid drop or dragonfly candle that quickly gets bought up, and 3) a subsequent lower high. Only on one occasion was the subsequent high slightly higher than the first high. These highs + lower highs, split by rapid drops or dragonfly candles are circled in blue. This also supports the idea that a broader wave 1 correction is well under way, as this pattern also appears at the recent 9.1k high.
Also note that the 200 day and 365 day exponential moving averages are converging to the top of the target area, which also corresponds to a strong support area in the 5.8k region during the last bear cycle. So these serves as further evidence of a possible support zone.
Here are a couple of scenarios for what may come next. The first is that the A leg of a broad ABC correction has completed, and we are now beginning the bull-trap B leg which could take us to the $8400/500 area. This would also result in a possible H&S pattern if it is confirmed. We would then begin the C leg down to the target area in the low to mid 5k’s. This target corresponds to the fib. 0.618 retracement which is very common for wave 1 corrections. Also, this fib. 0.618 region is close to the trendline that approximates a series of higher lows before the parabolic move up, which also serves as a good support zone.
The second scenario is that we are still in the A leg of a broad ABC correction, and that we have another sub-leg down to the 7k area before beginning the B leg upwards, and subsequent C leg downwards.
Incidentally, this is only the 5th time in
BTC history in which @coinmetrics Pro's NVTS metric has hit 100. The previous 4 instances were followed by 82%, 70%, 78%, and 83% corrections, respectively. So a correction beyond 61.8% is a very real possibility. twitter.com/hithrowaway/status/1129850144998846464
Final Target: 5k - 5.8k
One thing to note is that every major high and subsequent deep correction that has occurred since the 2017 high has exhibited 1) a high, 2) a rapid drop or dragonfly candle that quickly gets bought up, and 3) a subsequent lower high. Only on one occasion was the subsequent high slightly higher than the first high. These highs + lower highs, split by rapid drops or dragonfly candles are circled in blue. This also supports the idea that a broader wave 1 correction is well under way, as this pattern also appears at the recent 9.1k high.
Also note that the 200 day and 365 day exponential moving averages are converging to the top of the target area, which also corresponds to a strong support area in the 5.8k region during the last bear cycle. So these serves as further evidence of a possible support zone.
Here are a couple of scenarios for what may come next. The first is that the A leg of a broad ABC correction has completed, and we are now beginning the bull-trap B leg which could take us to the $8400/500 area. This would also result in a possible H&S pattern if it is confirmed. We would then begin the C leg down to the target area in the low to mid 5k’s. This target corresponds to the fib. 0.618 retracement which is very common for wave 1 corrections. Also, this fib. 0.618 region is close to the trendline that approximates a series of higher lows before the parabolic move up, which also serves as a good support zone.
The second scenario is that we are still in the A leg of a broad ABC correction, and that we have another sub-leg down to the 7k area before beginning the B leg upwards, and subsequent C leg downwards.
Incidentally, this is only the 5th time in
BTC history in which @coinmetrics Pro's NVTS metric has hit 100. The previous 4 instances were followed by 82%, 70%, 78%, and 83% corrections, respectively. So a correction beyond 61.8% is a very real possibility. twitter.com/hithrowaway/status/1129850144998846464Final Target: 5k - 5.8k
Nota
Weekly view showing extremely bearish evening star doji. Nota
So is Bitcoin in a reaccumulation TR in preparation for another bull move which we are now beginning? That's what some are suggesting with the recent price spike. But I don't think so. One big problem with this thesis is that alts are now dropping instead of moving with Bitcoin. This suggests there is a lot of selling out of alts into BTC in anticipation of a correction, causing a temporary price spike in BTC. Bitcoin will likely follow alts down as people then sell BTC into USD.We are still well within a reasonable range for the B leg in this ABC correction. We haven't even hit the fib. 0.618 retrace level which sits just below $8500.
Nota
Parabolic support broken. Nota
Violent sell-off of near 1000 points in a few minutes from the high suggests a top may be in, at least for now. Might expect some wild swings of 500-1000 points before a final correction. Though the unexpected length of the extension to 11.2k might require some upward adjustments to the expected correction target range.New final target: 6k - 6.5k
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