Market-wide Reversal Beginning Now, BTC going to 100k Next Year
Atualizado
It appears that we are beginning to round a corner on many cryptocurrencies which will likely lead to significantly higher prices than what we saw last year.
The news is becoming overwhelmingly positive and the massive expansion by exchanges and brokers into more global and traditional markets will lead to the new money buyers required to end this sell-off and begin a new uptrend. Governments are beginning to clarify their regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies and we will soon start to see ETFs and related products being traded on major traditional exchanges. Now that the SEC has said that Bitcoin is not a security it has opened the door to an ETF having much greater chance of being accepted, due to the fact that it was rejected last time solely on the fact that it was unregulated. The CBOE has just recently put in their application for another ETF after the SEC's decision to regulate most cryptocurrencies as non-securities. The China shutdown is also no longer a major factor due to their massive decrease of CNY volume, and South Korea seems to be leaning towards loosening up their restrictions towards cryptocurrencies in their country. Even Facebook has started to allow cryptocurrencies ads again which will help bring more new money into the space.
Apart from the news starting to improve, we are also seeing major momentum divergences and elliott wave patterns forming that indicate that we are at a significant bottom now. There's also harmonic patterns forming on multiple other cryptocurrencies, such as LTC, that are very large and will likely provide a large amount of support at these prices. There's also bullish divergent bars on multiple cryptos on the weekly charts and below, which again increases the probability of a reversal here.
With all of these factors occurring simultaneously, it's very likely for some sort of bullish retracement or a complete reversal here. Most likely, due to the potential EW pattern, we will see a complete reversal here and it will send us to new all time highs over the next year, with Bitcoin going as high as 100k sometime next year. Bitcoin will also probably be one of the less bullish currencies because of competition and issues with scalability. We will also probably see a continuation of BTC losing its market cap dominance to other top cryptocurrencies until it loses its seat as the biggest cryptocurrency.
The news is becoming overwhelmingly positive and the massive expansion by exchanges and brokers into more global and traditional markets will lead to the new money buyers required to end this sell-off and begin a new uptrend. Governments are beginning to clarify their regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies and we will soon start to see ETFs and related products being traded on major traditional exchanges. Now that the SEC has said that Bitcoin is not a security it has opened the door to an ETF having much greater chance of being accepted, due to the fact that it was rejected last time solely on the fact that it was unregulated. The CBOE has just recently put in their application for another ETF after the SEC's decision to regulate most cryptocurrencies as non-securities. The China shutdown is also no longer a major factor due to their massive decrease of CNY volume, and South Korea seems to be leaning towards loosening up their restrictions towards cryptocurrencies in their country. Even Facebook has started to allow cryptocurrencies ads again which will help bring more new money into the space.
Apart from the news starting to improve, we are also seeing major momentum divergences and elliott wave patterns forming that indicate that we are at a significant bottom now. There's also harmonic patterns forming on multiple other cryptocurrencies, such as LTC, that are very large and will likely provide a large amount of support at these prices. There's also bullish divergent bars on multiple cryptos on the weekly charts and below, which again increases the probability of a reversal here.
With all of these factors occurring simultaneously, it's very likely for some sort of bullish retracement or a complete reversal here. Most likely, due to the potential EW pattern, we will see a complete reversal here and it will send us to new all time highs over the next year, with Bitcoin going as high as 100k sometime next year. Bitcoin will also probably be one of the less bullish currencies because of competition and issues with scalability. We will also probably see a continuation of BTC losing its market cap dominance to other top cryptocurrencies until it loses its seat as the biggest cryptocurrency.
Nota
A short-term dip seems probable and will be a good place to load up on coins, as long as support around 5700 continues to hold. A break blow that support could mean we become intermediate bearish (but still long-term bullish).Nota
In the short-term this could get another wave or two down before we break up. However, if we make a new high from here we could continue the uptrend without another leg down. Either way, the complex corrective count here is indicating some kind of diametric or symmetrical pattern coming to a completion very soon, which means we should see a substantial reversal sometime this month.
Nota
Short-term dip happening like forecasted. There should have been far more momentum after breaking down from the large triangle but the bears have, so far, failed to wake up and bring us to significantly lower prices. Unless bears can break through the floor here and gain a lot of momentum, this is going to bounce very hard soon. Based on time considerations I'd say no later then late next week we should see some major bullish price action if bears can not bring us significantly lower.
The price action should be extremely powerful if it is to truly end this downtrend, much faster and larger than wave-(i), probably more powerful than all of wave-[d]. At a minimum it should break the -[d] trendline faster than all of wave-[e] took to form to confirm the bullish contracting triangle, and then from there it shouldn't take very long to start making new ATHs.
A reversal could happen at any moment so be prepared, though time-considerations favor it reversing around the week of the 15th.
Nota
(Can't use brackets in Tradingview comments apparently, here's a correction of the above)The price action should be extremely powerful if it is to truly end this downtrend, much faster and larger than wave-(i), probably more powerful than all of wave-d. At a minimum it should break the b-d trendline faster than all of wave- took to form to confirm the bullish contracting triangle, and then from there it shouldn't take very long to start making new ATHs.
Nota
I am moving this idea to status of "ALTERNATE COUNT"My new PRIMARY COUNT is this new diametric:
Nota
Nota
I think it's best to switch back to this idea as the primary count for now, until we have more information, however, I think we should make one slight change to the count (though the implications still remain the same, and we should go to directly to ATH here if this idea is correct)Nota
Bulls seem to be running out of energy. We could see another leg down very soon for the next month. Timing for wave-f to end here is good. Looks like wave-f is also an expanding triangle. The 3D momentum is also indicating that we need another leg down.
The angle of each decline has been decreasing by a measured amount, so based on the decreasing angle and the expected end time of this wave, the two price targets I come up with are 6200 and 5450. More likely it will stop at 6200 next month, but there's a small chance wave-g is a bit longer and we make a new low and test 5450 around the first week of September.
The only way to be sure wave-g is ending is that we should get an extremely powerful move up, much more powerful than what we've seen over the last month.
Nota
As @renkclub pointed out, there is another ETF that has a deadline for approval by August 23rd. This is the Proshares Bitcoin Futures ETF, and its short counterpart. I think there's a very good chance these ETFs are approved by the SEC, because of the same reasons as I listed above for the Direxion ETF. So it will be a good idea to be prepared on that date for a massive upswing.Nota
Wave-g ending on the 23rd would mean that there are 5 time similar waves, and 2 larger waves, which is within the guidelines for a diametric to be completed. Also wave-f+g=e in time on the 23rd. This means that if we get a positive ETF approval on the 23rd, we could be beginning the bull-run a month earlier than I originally forecasted.
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