Where is the BTC bottom???
Atualizado
BTC supply is rarely calculated/used in charts. Since we analyze equities/idices divided by M2SL, we should divide BTC with it's supply.
Since 2021, BTC supply increases by ~0.003% per week. At least according to the BTC_ADDRESSES ticker.
While this may not analyze the true amount of BTC in circulation, it is at least a start...
This process allows us to add a distinct bound to it's price. It's logarithmic expansion is hard to analyze. So this transformation solves most of our issues with it.
A larger view of the chart.
SCENARIO 1
Bitcoin wealth trends upwards compared to it's supply - It creates wealth
The channel was drawn using a log-scaled regression.
The light-blue line is a more realistic target for the bottom of the channel. The 2020 black swan is an outlier, we do however take it into consideration as a terminal target.
In order to get an idea of the timing, we draw a channel for the last 100 weeks.
And after extrapolating the trend channel, we take 6 targets.
Taking into account the increase in BTC supply (increasing supply, decreasing price) we get the final targets.
A=14220, B=12987, C=14719, D=13468, E=15432, F=14113
SCENARIO 2
Bitcoin fluctuates horizontally to eternity
Look at this retracement...
The 1.618 ratio is an impenetrable border (?)
This chart suggests that perhaps there is a big drop ahead of us, I haven't pinpointed a probable bottom. I will update this idea in the future if I come up with anything.
Price never succeeded to pass this ratio. Instead we had distribution for the last two years. It feels as if this ceiling may never give in. Bitcoin's role to society must change for it to skip this border. Then price might head to an entirely new scale. A monetary crisis could provide an opportunity for BTC to become a viable alternative to fiat currency.
Make sure to follow this idea by SPY_Master for more information about the brewing crisis.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Since 2021, BTC supply increases by ~0.003% per week. At least according to the BTC_ADDRESSES ticker.
While this may not analyze the true amount of BTC in circulation, it is at least a start...
This process allows us to add a distinct bound to it's price. It's logarithmic expansion is hard to analyze. So this transformation solves most of our issues with it.
A larger view of the chart.
SCENARIO 1
Bitcoin wealth trends upwards compared to it's supply - It creates wealth
The channel was drawn using a log-scaled regression.
The light-blue line is a more realistic target for the bottom of the channel. The 2020 black swan is an outlier, we do however take it into consideration as a terminal target.
In order to get an idea of the timing, we draw a channel for the last 100 weeks.
And after extrapolating the trend channel, we take 6 targets.
Taking into account the increase in BTC supply (increasing supply, decreasing price) we get the final targets.
A=14220, B=12987, C=14719, D=13468, E=15432, F=14113
SCENARIO 2
Bitcoin fluctuates horizontally to eternity
Look at this retracement...
The 1.618 ratio is an impenetrable border (?)
This chart suggests that perhaps there is a big drop ahead of us, I haven't pinpointed a probable bottom. I will update this idea in the future if I come up with anything.
Price never succeeded to pass this ratio. Instead we had distribution for the last two years. It feels as if this ceiling may never give in. Bitcoin's role to society must change for it to skip this border. Then price might head to an entirely new scale. A monetary crisis could provide an opportunity for BTC to become a viable alternative to fiat currency.
Make sure to follow this idea by SPY_Master for more information about the brewing crisis.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Nota
With a hand-drawn channel, these are some probable targets.These could be very temporary targets and I expect an immediate rebound to 12-15k.
Nota
On a lighter note, even compared with M2SL and it's supply, Bitcoin has created wealth since it's creation.Compared to their supplies, Bitcoin has created more wealth than dollar. In a way, it has behaved as a wealth creator.
Nota
To anyone interested in the relationship between the BTC_ADDRESSES indicator I used, and the "coins in circulation" BTC (market cap) / BTCUSD.They are linearly related.
Nota
The (local) bottom was not random...Nota
Bitcoin Market Cap divided by BTCUSDThis could describe a measure of "coins in circulation" unlike addresses (which don't represent coins but users)
A remarkably accurate polyline appears, with the chart in linear scale.
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