Elliot Waves And Reversal Of Trend Soon

BABA is a stock that is too big to fail and has much FUD surrounding it currently. IMO (and this is unrelated to the chart) whenever you see tons of FUD in the news surrounding a stock after its concluded its upward momentum that indicates that (really) rich investors (institutions) are trying to buy back in for a cheap price before it rockets upward. It's comical how institutional investors push out FUD at the PERFECT time.

THE CHART:
-The previous cycle follows Elliott wave theory perfectly with Elliott waves 1-5 and an ABC correction followed by a reversal of the trend to start the next cycle. During the bear market (ABC correction), you can see that price action fell below the gaussian channel. After the "A" and "B" wave concluded, you can see that there were 5 waves down indicating that the "C" wave has also concluded. If we apply this logic to the current market cycle, we see that the "A" and "B" wave have run their course and there have been 4 confirmed waves down in the "C" wave with the potential of the "5" wave to happen at any point, if it hasn't happened already. Couple this with the face that BABA has fallen through the gaussian channel this indicates a great long-term buying opportunity IMO.

-The RSI indicates that the stock is underbought (at about 26 RSI), the last time this happened the price of BABA rose 150% over exactly 2 years and hit the 2.272 fib retracement level (on log scale with fib retracements set to log scale also)

-The MACD has fallen below the previous bear cycle low.

-Since the MACD and RSI have fallen below the low of the previous bear cycle as well as price action falling below the 0.786 fib retracement (while the previous bear cycle fell just below the 0.5), this indicates an even greater percentage increase during the next bull cycle. The harder price action falls, the higher it will rebound, especially when there's clear manipulation at play (IMO).



*NOTE*
-If $153 is the true bottom, then the targets would be the 1.414, 1.618 and 2.272 fib retracement levels which sit at $389, $422 and $530.

-An example of FUD in the news is this (google "Will MercadoLibre Be Worth More Than Alibaba by 2030", i cant post links here). The news pushes an overbought stock while creating fear with an underbought stock to shake out weak handed retail investors before price actions resumes upwards.



CHART ELEMENTS:

PRICE:

Elliot waves:
Main Elliot waves- YELLOW
ABC correction- RED
Wave "C" sub waves- BLUE

Black boxes- COMPLETE BULL/BEAR CYCLE
Gaussian channel- RED/GREEN CHANNEL
Cyan boxes- PRICE FELL BELOW GAUSSIAN CHANNEL


RSI:
Yellow boxes- RSI INDICATES STOCK IS UNDERBOUGHT


MACD
Yellow line- MACD PREVIOUS CYCLE LOW VS CURRENT CYCLE LOW