(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, as well as June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone at the moment, particularly as intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Following a period of hesitation, AUD/USD bulls made an entrance Tuesday, with recent price swinging 0.6931 resistance back into action.
In case of a break to the upside, two trendline resistances inhabit territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671). Support at 0.6755 also remains in position to the downside, with a break shedding light on the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6668, a dynamic value in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of forming a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders. As you can see, the pair mildly advanced Thursday, breaking the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant and later retesting the latter as support.
Outside of the aforesaid configuration, traders will note supply at 0.7058/0.7029 falls in as an initial upside objective.
H1 timeframe:
With the help of optimistic US employment data, intraday price movement tagged 0.6950 resistance yesterday, whipsawing through supply at 0.6948/0.6935, and breached trendline support (0.6832). This also put forward a near-test of 0.69, a base positioned ahead of the 100-period simple moving average at 0.6891.
As of current price, the couple is circling around the underside of the recently broken trendline support.
Structures of Interest:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
According to the monthly timeframe, although we’re still trading within supply at 0.7029/0.6664, price is testing waters above a connecting trendline resistance. In addition to this, daily sellers appear ready to recapture resistance at 0.6931. This, along with a H4 close north of the bullish pennant pattern, helps confirm upside on the higher timeframes.
As for the H1 timeframe, intraday traders are likely zeroing in on 0.6950 resistance. A break of this region adds weight to the pair’s upward bias.
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