AUDNZD Bullish

4 de dez.

Technical Analysis
Divergence:

• The RSI divergence on the 4-hour AUD/NZD chart suggests a potential reversal or slowing of the downtrend.
  
• The price has made lower lows, while the RSI shows higher lows, indicating bullish divergence. This is a sign of weakening bearish momentum and the possibility of a reversal or consolidation.
  

Support Zone:

• The price is hovering around a strong horizontal support level (yellow line). This area has previously acted as a support, increasing the likelihood of a bounce.
  

Volume:

• Declining volume in the downtrend indicates weak bearish pressure, which further supports the case for a reversal.
  

Fundamental Analysis Bias
AUD Fundamentals (Strong):

• COT RSI data for the AUD shows higher percentages across 13, 26, and 52-week periods, indicating strong speculative positioning for AUD. This reflects a positive sentiment toward AUD
  

.
NZD Fundamentals (Weak):

• NZD COT RSI values are significantly lower, showing weakness in speculative sentiment compared to AUD.
  

Endogenous Factors (Mixed):

• The endogenous factor table shows mixed scores. However, AUD scores are generally less negative or neutral, while NZD has slightly weaker scores. This gives AUD a slight fundamental edge.
  

Overall Bias:

The AUD/NZD pair's fundamental bias aligns bullish for AUD based on the data. If NZD fundamentals weaken further, this adds to the bullish outlook.
Conclusion and Trade Bias
Technical:

Bullish Divergence + Support Zone: Favor a bounce or reversal in the short term.
Watch for RSI to cross above 50 and confirmation of higher highs in price.
Fundamental:

AUD appears fundamentally stronger than NZD, supporting a medium-term bullish bias for the pair.
Trade Plan
Entry: Consider entering long positions near the current support level if bullish candles form on higher timeframes.
Stop Loss: Place stops slightly below the support zone.
Take Profit: Target previous resistance levels around 1.1050 and 1.1100.