AUD/JPY appears to be under pressure following the failed attempt to test the April high (104.96).

AUD/JPY Rate Outlook

AUD/JPY initiates a series of lower highs and lows as it continues to pullback from the weekly high (104.87), with the recent weakness in the exchange rate keeping the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of overbought territory.

Lack of momentum to hold above the 102.85 (November 2014 high) to 103.40 (100% Fibonacci extension) region may push AUD/JPY back towards the 100.90 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 101.37 (December 2014 high) zone, with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly low (99.93).

Nevertheless, AUD/JPY may continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (101.33) as it holds above the moving average, with a breach above the April high (104.96) opening up the 105.43 (April 2013 high) to 105.50 (50% Fibonacci extension) area.

--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
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