JPY: Is the potential rate hike priced in?
Hello traders
I have the opportunity to catch the opening bell of the NY, Asian and London/Europe markets.
It does come at a cost with interrupted sleep when necessary but the pay off is worth it.
I trade EUR/USD in the morning and the JPY crosses in the afternoon with the focus on AUD/JPY.
The technical indicators, in my opinion, point to the possibility that a rate HIKE by the BOJ has been priced in against the majors. The Federal Reserve USD rate CUT is also baked into the markets outlook.
Fundamentally, the USD still has the upper hand with more Fed speak pointing to "no rush to lower rates" by Fed Powell and San Francisco's Mary Daly earlier today.
BOJ's Nakamura also commented today that consumption lacks momentum.
Japan also showed an uptick in the most recent unemployment rate.
This could of course change in a heart beat if labor markets show a significant slowdown over the next few months or if inflation picks up again if/when Trump enforces all the threats of tariffs.
The next rate cut from Australia is factored in for May 2025 but the lower print on GDP was unexpected. And the Chinese economy's performance obviously plays a huge role in the AUD performance.
BUT, proceed with caution over the next few weeks until all the central bank rate decisions are out of the way.
Surprisingly, the EURO has taken the political turmoil in France in it's stride. It does not appear as if it will precipitate another Greece-like debt crisis, yet.
Here is a look at the EUR/JPY
Stay nimble. There are a lot of balls up in the air at the moment. Best of luck.
I have the opportunity to catch the opening bell of the NY, Asian and London/Europe markets.
It does come at a cost with interrupted sleep when necessary but the pay off is worth it.
I trade EUR/USD in the morning and the JPY crosses in the afternoon with the focus on AUD/JPY.
The technical indicators, in my opinion, point to the possibility that a rate HIKE by the BOJ has been priced in against the majors. The Federal Reserve USD rate CUT is also baked into the markets outlook.
Fundamentally, the USD still has the upper hand with more Fed speak pointing to "no rush to lower rates" by Fed Powell and San Francisco's Mary Daly earlier today.
BOJ's Nakamura also commented today that consumption lacks momentum.
Japan also showed an uptick in the most recent unemployment rate.
This could of course change in a heart beat if labor markets show a significant slowdown over the next few months or if inflation picks up again if/when Trump enforces all the threats of tariffs.
The next rate cut from Australia is factored in for May 2025 but the lower print on GDP was unexpected. And the Chinese economy's performance obviously plays a huge role in the AUD performance.
BUT, proceed with caution over the next few weeks until all the central bank rate decisions are out of the way.
Surprisingly, the EURO has taken the political turmoil in France in it's stride. It does not appear as if it will precipitate another Greece-like debt crisis, yet.
Here is a look at the EUR/JPY
Stay nimble. There are a lot of balls up in the air at the moment. Best of luck.
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