Volume-Weighted S/R Zones [WillyAlgoTrader]📊 Volume-Weighted S/R Zones is an overlay indicator that automatically detects support and resistance zones from price pivots, scores them by volume and price reaction, tracks breaks and retests, and instantly places a full risk-management plan on the chart with a stop-loss and three take-profits. No manual lines — everything is calculated and drawn automatically.
The core idea: not all levels are equal. A level where price reversed on heavy volume and ran far from it is dozens of times more valuable than a level formed on thin volume with no reaction. The indicator assigns each zone a Strength Score from 0 to 100 , combining volume at the pivot bar, price reaction strength, and touch count — and displays only the zones that actually work.
The indicator is completely free and open-source . Works on any instrument (crypto, forex, stocks, futures, indices) and any timeframe.
🧩 WHY THESE COMPONENTS WORK TOGETHER
A classic pivot indicator draws lines on every local high and low — the chart turns into a mess of dozens of levels, and it's impossible to tell which ones matter. Volume profiles show where heavy trading happened, but don't tie that to specific reversal levels. Pure Price Action gives the right zones, but requires manual markup.
This indicator solves all three problems with one integrated pipeline:
Pivot Detection → Volume Score + Reaction Score → ATR clustering of nearby pivots → Strength Score 0..100 → Age Decay → Break Detection (with filters) → Retest Detection → Zone-Aware SL/TP → Trade Statistics
Each step adds something the previous one cannot. Pivot Detection finds raw reversal points. Volume Score answers the question "was there heavy trading here". Reaction Score answers "did price bounce off the level". ATR clustering merges pivots into a single zone if they sit within N×ATR — giving zone width instead of a thin line. Age Decay gradually reduces the weight of old zones. Break/Retest turn zones into trade signals. Zone-Aware SL places the stop behind the broken zone instead of at an abstract ATR distance. Trade Stats show whether your settings actually work on your instrument.
Remove any component and the system breaks: pivots without scoring are noise, scoring without clustering produces dozens of thin lines, clustering without break/retest gives no signals, signals without zone-aware SL get stopped out on noise.
🔍 WHAT MAKES THIS INDICATOR ORIGINAL
1️⃣ Strength Score 0..100 — three-component zone quality measurement.
Each zone receives a strength score by the formula:
Score = VolScore + ReactionScore + 10 (base bonus), then clamp(0, 100)
Where:
— VolScore (0..40) : computed as min(40, volumeRatio × 20) , where volumeRatio = volume on the pivot bar / average volume over N bars (default 20). On instruments without volume (some forex pairs) a base value of 20 is assigned.
— ReactionScore (0..30) : measured as min(30, max_move / ATR × 10) , where max_move is the maximum price movement AWAY from the pivot in the first N bars after it (default 5). Computed against ATR at the pivot bar, not current ATR — this is the correct normalization.
When the same zone is touched again (a new pivot within ATR × MergeDistance radius, default 0.5), zones merge, the touch counter grows, and a bonus of min(20, √touches × 4) × 0.5 is added to the score. This means: 4 touches give +4, 9 touches +6, 16 touches +8. Logarithmic growth to avoid over-weighting.
Zones are divided into 4 tiers by score: ★ (weak, 0-30), ★★ (medium, 30-60), ★★★ (strong, 60-85), 🔥 (very strong, 85+) . The tier is shown directly on the zone label and affects box transparency — stronger zones are more visually prominent.
2️⃣ Age Decay — old zones lose strength gradually, not abruptly.
Each bar the zone score is reduced by ageDecayRate × 0.1 . By default (0.5) that's −0.05 per bar, so a zone loses about 25 points over 500 bars. This gives an honest forgetting mechanism: a level from last week matters, but not as much as a level from last hour. Can be disabled (set to 0) or made aggressive (1.0 = −0.10 per bar).
Additionally zones are removed by three conditions: age exceeds Max Zone Age (default 30 Days, measured independently of timeframe), score drops below MIN_VIABLE_SCORE = 5.0 , or zone is broken and more than 2×ReactionWindow bars have passed since the break (nobody will retest a stale broken zone).
3️⃣ Break Detection with a dual-volume filter (floor + cap).
The standard "break volume ≥ N×average" filter is easily bypassed by news spikes and gaps. Solution:
— Volume Floor : volume ≥ avg × VolMult (default 1.3) — filters thin-volume breakouts.
— Volume Cap (optional) : volume ≤ avg × VolCap (default 5.0) — filters abnormally large candles (opening gaps, news spikes). Especially important on stocks.
Additionally: Momentum Filter requires the break candle's range to be ≥ N×ATR (default 1.0). This filters "doji breaks" where the candle body barely crossed the level.
4️⃣ Retest Detection with reaction validation.
After a break, the indicator waits for a retest within a Min..Max bars window (default 2..30). A retest counts only if:
— Price touched the broken zone (low ≤ zoneTop for a bullish break)
— Price closed back in trend direction (close > zoneTop)
— Reaction from the zone ≥ ATR × ReactionMin (default 0.5×ATR)
Optionally enable Mitigation Filter , which skips a retest if the zone was already tested once — for traders who only want the first retest.
5️⃣ Zone-Aware Stop-Loss — stops behind real structure, not in thin air.
With Zone-Aware SL enabled, the stop is placed not just at ATR×Mult distance, but by formula:
— For long: SL = max(close − ATR×SLMult, zoneBot − ATR×0.2)
— For short: SL = min(close + ATR×SLMult, zoneTop + ATR×0.2)
The LESS aggressive stop is chosen: either the standard ATR stop, or "behind the zone with a 0.2×ATR buffer". Logic: if the zone is broken, it became resistance (for longs) or support (for shorts). If price returns back INTO the zone — the breakout idea is invalidated, you should exit. This gives a clear exit criterion and usually a wider but more meaningful stop.
6️⃣ Risk presets and three take-profits with partial scaling.
Four ready-made risk presets:
— Conservative : SL 2.5×ATR, TP 1R / 2R / 4R
— Balanced (default): SL 1.5×ATR, TP 1R / 2R / 3R
— Aggressive : SL 1.0×ATR, TP 1.5R / 2.5R / 4R
— Scalping : SL 0.8×ATR, TP 0.8R / 1.5R / 2R
— Custom : configure manually
The model assumes splitting the position into three equal parts: 1/3 on TP1, 1/3 on TP2, 1/3 on TP3. When a TP is touched, the line turns solid cyan with a ✓ checkmark.
7️⃣ Break-Even Trail — after TP1 the stop automatically moves to entry.
With Break-Even After TP1 enabled, on first touch of TP1 the SL is pulled to the entry price. Only TP2 and TP3 remain in play — but the risk is now zero. If price reverses, the trade closes at break-even instead of the original stop. Classic "protect profit, let winners run" model.
Implemented carefully: BE activates only after a confirmed TP1 touch (with no SL break on the same bar), and on the same bar TP1 + SL is always resolved as a stop (conservative model — real brokers don't guarantee limit fills before stops on the same wick).
8️⃣ Session Trade Statistics — tracking real effectiveness.
The dashboard tracks stats right on the chart:
— Trades : total closed trades
— W/L : wins vs losses
— Win Rate : % of wins. A WIN = TP1 reached . This is a deliberate classification: if the idea worked and TP1 closed — that's a success, even if TP2/TP3 didn't fill and exited at BE.
— BE saves : diagnostic counter. How many wins closed via BE-stop rather than TP3. High BE saves ratio → TP3 is set too far.
— Avg R : average R-multiple per trade. Calculated assuming partial scaling (1/3 at each TP).
Stats reset on any settings change (including a dedicated Reset Stats Counter input made specifically for manual resets).
9️⃣ Fully adaptive theme and WCAG-contrast colors.
All colors are calculated for both TradingView themes (Dark/Light) with WCAG AA contrast verification (4.5:1 minimum). Label text on tinted backgrounds is chosen so it remains readable on both themes. Auto-detection by chart background color, or manual Dark/Light selection in settings.
🔟 TF-independent zone aging.
Max Zone Age can be set in Bars / Hours / Days . This means "30 Days" is always 30 calendar days regardless of timeframe (on 5m it's 8640 bars, on 1h — 720, on 1D — 30). Legacy indicators use bars only, which makes them break when you switch TFs — fixed here.
🧠 HOW IT WORKS — step-by-step calculation flow
Step 1 — Pivot Detection: on each bar, ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow are checked with equal left/right lookback (default 21). A pivot is confirmed only after N bars pass — so the indicator does NOT repaint already-drawn zones.
Step 2 — Volume Score: for a confirmed pivot, VolScore is computed against the volume on the pivot bar itself (not the current bar).
Step 3 — Reaction Score: the maximum price movement AWAY from the pivot is measured over the next N bars. ATR at the pivot bar is used for correct normalization.
Step 4 — Merge or Create: if there's already a same-type zone within ATR × MergeDistance — the pivot merges into it (zone widens, score updates, touch counter increments). Otherwise a new zone is created with boundaries ±0.15×ATR from the pivot price.
Step 5 — Age Decay & Cleanup: a reverse pass over the zone array applies decay, removes too-old, too-weak, and stale broken zones. If active zones exceed Max Active Zones — the weakest is removed.
Step 6 — Break Detection: on every confirmed bar, every unbroken zone is checked for a break. Volume Floor, Volume Cap, and Momentum Filter are applied if enabled.
Step 7 — Retest Detection: after a break, a retest with confirmed reaction is searched for in the Min..Max bars window.
Step 8 — Risk Management: on a signal (Break or Retest), with risk management enabled, a virtual position opens with SL and three TPs calculated.
Step 9 — Trade Lifecycle: on each bar, SL/TP touches are checked. TP1 → BE activates. SL or TP3 → position closes, stats update.
Step 10 — Visual & Alerts: zone boxes, SL/TP lines, BRK/RT markers, dashboard — all refresh on the last bar. Alerts fire on bar close.
📖 HOW TO USE — EVEN IF YOU'RE NEW
🎯 Quick start (3 minutes):
1. Add the indicator to your chart (any instrument, any timeframe).
2. Wait 30–50 bars — the indicator needs history for calculations. Zones will appear after that.
3. Look at the dashboard in the top-right corner — it shows current trend, active signal, and position state.
4. Don't change settings on day one. Work with defaults to understand how the indicator "breathes" on your instrument.
5. When you see a BRK or RT signal — look at the horizontal SL/TP1/TP2/TP3 lines. That's your trade plan.
👁️ Reading the chart:
— 🟢 Green box = support zone (Demand). Price approaches from below.
— 🔴 Red box = resistance zone (Supply). Price approaches from above.
— Box transparency = zone strength. The more opaque, the stronger.
— Icon on the label : ★ weak, ★★ medium, ★★★ strong, 🔥 very strong.
— ×N on label = number of zone touches.
— ✕ on label = zone already broken (you can hunt for a retest).
— BRK green below bar = resistance broken upward.
— BRK red above bar = support broken downward.
— RT = confirmed retest of broken level.
— Dotted blue line = entry price of the active trade.
— Solid red line = stop-loss. When it becomes dimmed + ENTRY label says "→ SL (BE)" — stop has moved to break-even.
— Dashed green lines = TP1, TP2, TP3. When they turn solid cyan with ✓ — that TP is reached.
📊 Dashboard (top-right by default):
— Trend : Bullish / Bearish / Neutral. Calculated as weighted difference of zone strength above vs below price.
— Signal : current status (BREAK ▲, RETEST ▼, Long Active, Wait, etc.).
— Score : strength of active signal or strongest zone.
— Zones : number of active zones on chart.
— TF : timeframe.
— SL / TP1 / TP2 / TP3 : risk management prices for the active trade.
— R:R : risk/reward ratio to TP1.
— Risk : % of price you risk to the stop.
— Trades / W/L / Win Rate / BE saves / Avg R : session stats.
🔧 Tuning — what to change and when:
— Too many zones, chart cluttered: raise Min Score to Display to 30–40. Raise Zone Merge Distance to 0.7–1.0.
— Too few zones: lower Pivot Lookback to 10–15. Lower Min Score to 0–10.
— Scalping 1m–5m: use Scalping preset, Pivot Lookback 5–8, ATR Length 10.
— Swing 1h–4h: Balanced preset, Pivot Lookback 21 (default), Max Zone Age 30 Days.
— Position trading 1D: Conservative preset, Pivot Lookback 10–15, Max Zone Age 90 Days.
— False breakouts eat your account: enable Volume Filter for Breaks + Momentum Filter.
— Trading stocks/indices with gaps: keep Volume Cap on (it's on by default).
— Want only the first retest: enable Mitigation Filter for Retests.
— Frequently closing at BE without profit: check BE saves in dashboard. If >50% of wins — TP3 is too far, shorten it.
💡 Trading ideas:
— Most reliable setup: retest of a strong zone (★★★ or 🔥) in the dashboard trend direction .
— Don't trade against the strongest zone (🔥) in your path — wait for it to break first.
— A zone touch without confirmed reaction is NOT a signal. The indicator filters this for you, but don't try to "guess" the bounce in advance.
— Use Trade Stats as feedback. If after 50 trades Win Rate < 40% and Avg R < 0 — change settings or timeframe.
⚙️ KEY SETTINGS
⚙️ Main Settings:
— Pivot Lookback (default 21): how many bars on each side must be lower/higher for a pivot
— Max Active Zones (default 8): max number of active zones on chart
— Zone Merge Distance (default 0.5×ATR): merge radius for nearby pivots
— Min Score to Display (default 15): hide zones weaker than this
📦 Zone Detection:
— ATR Length (default 14): ATR period for all calculations
— Volume Avg Lookback (default 20): average volume window
— Reaction Window (default 5): bars to measure reaction after a pivot
— Age Decay Rate (default 0.5): zone aging speed
— Max Zone Age (default 30 Days): maximum zone age
— Max Zone Age Unit (Bars / Hours / Days)
🔍 Filters (optional):
— Volume Filter for Breaks (default off): require volume ≥ N×average on break
— Volume Multiplier (default 1.3)
— Volume Cap (default on, 5.0): filter abnormal spikes
— Momentum Filter (default off): require candle range ≥ N×ATR
— Mitigation Filter (default off): first retest only
🎯 Signals:
— Show Break Signals / Show Retest Signals
— Min/Max Bars for Retest (default 2 / 30)
— Min Retest Reaction (default 0.5×ATR)
🛡️ Risk Management:
— Enable Risk Management (default on)
— Risk Preset (Conservative / Balanced / Aggressive / Scalping / Custom)
— SL ×ATR , TP1/TP2/TP3 ×Risk (for Custom)
— Zone-Aware SL (default on): place stop behind the zone
— Break-Even After TP1 (default on)
— Show SL/TP Lines / Labels
— Show % Distance on Labels
— Entry/SL/TP Line Style (Solid / Dashed / Dotted)
🎨 Visual:
— Theme (Auto / Dark / Light)
— Show Zones / Score Labels / Watermark
— Zone Forward Bars (default 5): how many bars to project zones forward
— SL/TP Label Font Size , Signal Marker Size
📊 Dashboard:
— Show Dashboard , Position
— Show Trade Stats (W/L, Win Rate, Avg R, BE saves)
— Reset Stats Counter : changing the value resets stats
🔔 ALERTS
— 🟢 BREAK UP — resistance broken upward, with price, score, SL, and three TPs
— 🔴 BREAK DOWN — support broken downward
— 🟢 RETEST LONG — confirmed long retest
— 🔴 RETEST SHORT — confirmed short retest
— 🎯 TP1 / TP2 / TP3 HIT — target reached (optional)
— 🛑 SL HIT / 🛡️ BE STOP-OUT — stop-loss hit or break-even close
— 🛡️ BREAK-EVEN ACTIVATED — stop moved to entry
All alerts available in two formats: plain text (readable for Telegram/Discord) and JSON (for webhook automation). Fire on bar close (alert.freq_once_per_bar_close) — no intra-bar flooding.
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
— 🚫 No repainting. All signals use barstate.isconfirmed. Pivots are confirmed with equal left/right lookback — meaning the pivot point is always N bars in the past. This is delayed confirmation, not repainting of future values. Zones don't move after they appear.
— 📐 Zones are built from confirmed pivots. This means a zone appears on the chart N (Pivot Lookback) bars after the extreme formed. On the most recent 21 bars to the right there will be no zones — this is normal and correct.
— ⚖️ On instruments without volume (some forex pairs, some indices) VolScore defaults to 20 out of 40. Zone quality scoring is lower than on crypto/stocks with real volume.
— 🛠️ This is an analysis tool, not an automated bot. The indicator finds zones, marks signals, and proposes a structured trade plan — but entry decisions are YOURS. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
— 📊 Trade Stats counts virtual trades based on indicator signals, without slippage, commissions, or real liquidity. Use as a reference, not as a promise of results.
— 🌐 Universal compatibility: works on any ticker and timeframe. On tick/Renko charts, Hours/Days options for Max Zone Age automatically fall back to 500 bars.
— 💯 Completely free, open-source. Study the code, fork it, modify it for yourself.
If you found this indicator useful — leave a 🚀 and follow the author profile to see updates and new publications. Questions and feedback welcome in the comments. Indicador
Indicador
Recession Warning Model [BackQuant]Recession Warning Model
Overview
The Recession Warning Model (RWM) is a Pine Script® indicator designed to estimate the probability of an economic recession by integrating multiple macroeconomic, market sentiment, and labor market indicators. It combines over a dozen data series into a transparent, adaptive, and actionable tool for traders, portfolio managers, and researchers. The model provides customizable complexity levels, display modes, and data processing options to accommodate various analytical requirements while ensuring robustness through dynamic weighting and regime-aware adjustments.
Purpose
The RWM fulfills the need for a concise yet comprehensive tool to monitor recession risk. Unlike approaches relying on a single metric, such as yield-curve inversion, or extensive economic reports, it consolidates multiple data sources into a single probability output. The model identifies active indicators, their confidence levels, and the current economic regime, enabling users to anticipate downturns and adjust strategies accordingly.
Core Features
- Indicator Families : Incorporates 13 indicators across five categories: Yield, Labor, Sentiment, Production, and Financial Stress.
- Dynamic Weighting : Adjusts indicator weights based on recent predictive accuracy, constrained within user-defined boundaries.
- Leading and Coincident Split : Separates early-warning (leading) and confirmatory (coincident) signals, with adjustable weighting (default 60/40 mix).
- Economic Regime Sensitivity : Modulates output sensitivity based on market conditions (Expansion, Late-Cycle, Stress, Crisis), using a composite of VIX, yield-curve, financial conditions, and credit spreads.
- Display Options : Supports four modes—Probability (0-100%), Binary (four risk bins), Lead/Coincident, and Ensemble (blended probability).
- Confidence Intervals : Reflects model stability, widening during high volatility or conflicting signals.
- Alerts : Configurable thresholds (Watch, Caution, Warning, Alert) with persistence filters to minimize false signals.
- Data Export : Enables CSV output for probabilities, signals, and regimes, facilitating external analysis in Python or R.
Model Complexity Levels
Users can select from four tiers to balance simplicity and depth:
1. Essential : Focuses on three core indicators—yield-curve spread, jobless claims, and unemployment change—for minimalistic monitoring.
2. Standard : Expands to nine indicators, adding consumer confidence, PMI, VIX, S&P 500 trend, money supply vs. GDP, and the Sahm Rule.
3. Professional : Includes all 13 indicators, incorporating financial conditions, credit spreads, JOLTS vacancies, and wage growth.
4. Research : Unlocks all indicators plus experimental settings for advanced users.
Key Indicators
Below is a summary of the 13 indicators, their data sources, and economic significance:
- Yield-Curve Spread : Difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Negative spreads signal banking sector stress.
- Jobless Claims : Four-week moving average of unemployment claims. Sustained increases indicate rising layoffs.
- Unemployment Change : Three-month change in unemployment rate. Sharp rises often precede recessions.
- Sahm Rule : Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, a reliable recession indicator.
- Consumer Confidence : University of Michigan survey. Declines reflect household pessimism, impacting spending.
- PMI : Purchasing Managers’ Index. Values below 50 indicate manufacturing contraction.
- VIX : CBOE Volatility Index. Elevated levels suggest market anticipation of economic distress.
- S&P 500 Growth : Weekly moving average trend. Declines reduce wealth effects, curbing consumption.
- M2 + GDP Trend : Monitors money supply and real GDP. Simultaneous declines signal credit contraction.
- NFCI : Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index. Positive values indicate tighter conditions.
- Credit Spreads : Proxy for corporate bond spreads using 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury yields. Widening spreads reflect stress.
- JOLTS Vacancies : Job openings data. Significant drops precede hiring slowdowns.
- Wage Growth : Year-over-year change in average hourly earnings. Late-cycle spikes often signal economic overheating.
Data Processing
- Rate of Change (ROC) : Optionally applied to capture momentum in data series (default: 21-bar period).
- Z-Score Normalization : Standardizes indicators to a common scale (default: 252-bar lookback).
- Smoothing : Applies a short moving average to final signals (default: 5-bar period) to reduce noise.
- Binary Signals : Generated for each indicator (e.g., yield-curve inverted or PMI below 50) based on thresholds or Z-score deviations.
Probability Calculation
1. Each indicator’s binary signal is weighted according to user settings or dynamic performance.
2. Weights are normalized to sum to 100% across active indicators.
3. Leading and coincident signals are aggregated separately (if split mode is enabled) and combined using the specified mix.
4. The probability is adjusted by a regime multiplier, amplifying risk during Stress or Crisis regimes.
5. Optional smoothing ensures stable outputs.
Display and Visualization
- Probability Mode : Plots a continuous 0-100% recession probability with color gradients and confidence bands.
- Binary Mode : Categorizes risk into four levels (Minimal, Watch, Caution, Alert) for simplified dashboards.
- Lead/Coincident Mode : Displays leading and coincident probabilities separately to track signal divergence.
- Ensemble Mode : Averages traditional and split probabilities for a balanced view.
- Regime Background : Color-coded overlays (green for Expansion, orange for Late-Cycle, amber for Stress, red for Crisis).
- Analytics Table : Optional dashboard showing probability, confidence, regime, and top indicator statuses.
Practical Applications
- Asset Allocation : Adjust equity or bond exposures based on sustained probability increases.
- Risk Management : Hedge portfolios with VIX futures or options during regime shifts to Stress or Crisis.
- Sector Rotation : Shift toward defensive sectors when coincident signals rise above 50%.
- Trading Filters : Disable short-term strategies during high-risk regimes.
- Event Timing : Scale positions ahead of high-impact data releases when probability and VIX are elevated.
Configuration Guidelines
- Enable ROC and Z-score for consistent indicator comparison unless raw data is preferred.
- Use dynamic weighting with at least one economic cycle of data for optimal performance.
- Monitor stress composite scores above 80 alongside probabilities above 70 for critical risk signals.
- Adjust adaptation speed (default: 0.1) to 0.2 during Crisis regimes for faster indicator prioritization.
- Combine RWM with complementary tools (e.g., liquidity metrics) for intraday or short-term trading.
Limitations
- Macro indicators lag intraday market moves, making RWM better suited for strategic rather than tactical trading.
- Historical data availability may constrain dynamic weighting on shorter timeframes.
- Model accuracy depends on the quality and timeliness of economic data feeds.
Final Note
The Recession Warning Model provides a disciplined framework for monitoring economic downturn risks. By integrating diverse indicators with transparent weighting and regime-aware adjustments, it empowers users to make informed decisions in portfolio management, risk hedging, or macroeconomic research. Regular review of model outputs alongside market-specific tools ensures its effective application across varying market conditions. Indicador
Indicador
US Recessions (NBER)This indicator is designed to replace the US Recessions indicator.
Unfortunately, the original indicator is now broken, and the author is not responding: www.tradingview.com .
There are other similar indicators, but they are not based on live data and either show non-officially recognized recessions or fail to display all officially recognized recessions.
This indicator shades US recession periods based on live monthly data from USREC . It highlights all officially recognized US recessions according to the NBER and will automatically shade any future recessions when they occur. The indicator works across all timeframes, correctly shading recessions whether you are viewing a 30-minute, 2-hour, daily, weekly, or any other chart timeframe.
Warning & Risks :
This indicator uses the barmerge.lookahead_on option to correctly handle monthly recession data from USREC . The purpose of this setting is to ensure that the monthly data points are applied retroactively to the corresponding bars on the chart. However, this means that while past recession periods are accurately shaded, the script is effectively displaying data from future candles and plotting it backward onto the chart.
This behavior does not introduce a “future leak” in the traditional sense—since USREC data is backward-looking and the current month always remains non-recessionary until officially confirmed. Nonetheless, it can cause confusion, as users may see recession periods shaded retroactively only after the data becomes available. Therefore, the current month will always appear non-recessionary until the next data point is released, and historical recession periods may be adjusted after the fact . Indicador
Economic Growth Index (XLY/XLP)Keeping an eye on the macroeconomic environment is an essential part of a successful investing and trading strategy. Piecing together and analysing its complex patterns are important to detect probable changing trends. This may seem complicated, or even better left to experts and gurus, but it’s made a whole lot easier by this indicator, the Economic Growth Index (EGI).
Common sense shows that in an expanding economy, consumers have access to cash and credit in the form of disposable income, and spend it on all sorts of goods, but mainly crap they don’t need (consumer discretionary items). Companies making these goods do well in this phase of the economy, and can charge well for their products.
Conversely, in a contracting economy, disposable income and credit dry up, so demand for consumer discretionary products slows, because people have no choice but to spend what they have on essential goods. Now, companies making staple goods do well, and keep their pricing power.
These dynamics are represented in EGI, which plots the Rate of Change of the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) in relation to the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP). Put simply, green is an expanding phase of the economy, and red shrinking. The signal line is the market, a smoothed RSI of the S&P500. Run this on a Daily timeframe or higher. Check it occasionally to see where the smart money is heading.
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US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)The US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), normalized for the United States, closely mirrors the Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" (LEI). It offers unique insights into economic and financial dynamics.
The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is an economic tool designed to anticipate economic developments. It is created by aggregating and normalizing a wide range of economic and financial data from various sources.
The normalized data is then aggregated, and a composite indicator is calculated by taking a weighted average of individual indicators.
The CLI is used to provide early insights into the state of the economy and to anticipate future economic trends. It is particularly valuable for predicting economic downturns, including recessions.
The CLI is an essential tool for economists, governments, businesses, and investors seeking to understand economic trends and make informed decisions.
Key Features:
1. Early Warning: Just like its counterpart, the CLI indicator excels at offering early warnings about significant economic events, particularly economic crises. This makes it an indispensable asset for analysts and investors.
2. Recession Indicators: The moving average serves as an early warning system for potential economic recessions. When it crosses the indicator line from the bottom to the top while surpassing a predefined threshold (e.g., 101), it signals a potential crisis.
3. Market Impact: The CLI indicator provides valuable insights into the performance of financial markets, offering cues about indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and more.
Why It Matters:
Understanding the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) indicator, normalized for the United States, is crucial for anticipating economic shifts and preparing for changes in financial markets. By analyzing a diverse array of economic factors, it provides a holistic view of economic well-being. Whether you're an investor or economist, this indicator can be an invaluable resource for staying informed about market trends and major economic developments.
Source:
www.data.oecd.org Indicador
Indicador
US Recession IndicatorThe US Recession Indicator is designed to identify recessions as they happen, using two reputable indicators that have accurately foreseen all past recessions since 1969. Unlike the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which determines recession dates after the fact, this indicator seeks to spot recessions in real-time. When both of these distinct metrics meet certain criteria, the chart's background becomes shaded, signifying a strong likelihood that the economy is in a recession. Furthermore, a built-in alert system keeps users updated without constant monitoring.
The first metric is the Smoothed Recession Probabilities developed by Marcelle Chauvet. It is based on a dynamic-factor markov-switching model that assesses four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments and real manufacturing and trade sales. It offers a mathematical analysis of how recessions deviate from expansions. In essence, this index mirrors the probability of the prevailing true economic situation being a recession, grounded on the current GDP data.
The second metric is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator developed by Claudia Sahm. It operates on the principle that changes in the unemployment rate can be used to identify the onset of a recession. According to this rule, if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point from the preceding year, it flags a potential recession.
For this combined indicator, the thresholds are intentionally set lower than when each metric is used individually. Both metrics must simultaneously suggest a potential recession in order to send a signal. This stems from the realisation that neither metric is infallible and has, on occasion, sent false signals in the past. By requiring both to align, the likelihood of a false positive is reduced. However, it's crucial to understand that past performance does not guarantee future results, leaving the door open for potential false alerts which may not be confirmed by the NBER. Indicador
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Recessions & crises shading (custom dates & stats)Shades your chart background to flag events such as crises or recessions, in similar fashion to what you see on FRED charts. The advantage of this indicator over others is that you can quickly input custom event dates as text in the menu to analyse their impact for your specific symbol. The script automatically labels, calculates and displays the peak to through percentage corrections on your current chart.
By default the indicator is configured to show the last 6 US recessions. If you have custom events which will benefit others, just paste the input string in the comments below so one can simply copy/paste in their indicator.
Example event input (No spaces allowed except for the label name. Enter dates as YYYY-MM-DD.)
2020-02-01,2020-03-31,COVID-19
2007-12-01,2009-05-31,Subprime mortgages
2001-03-01,2001-10-30,Dot-com bubble
1990-07-01,1991-03-01,Oil shock
1981-07-01,1982-11-01,US unemployment
1980-01-01,1980-07-01,Volker
1973-11-01,1975-03-01,OPEC Indicador
Recession Warning Traffic LightThis is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession.
GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods in the chart above.
RED will show a full-on warning level for that particular recession indicator, signaling that monitoring of this sector is clearly showing a problem – which has in the past, reliably exhibited itself as a forewarning of recessions.
Adding green and red together can help determine a combined probability of recession.
IMPORTANT: Your chart should be on 1d and set to SPX , DJI ,or NDQ indices
Precious metals: This indicator calculates the relative prices of Gold & rhodium. Gold is a flight-to-quality asset. Rhodium is the rarest of precious industrial metals and prices spike when the economy is heating up. In front of a recession, the upper relative movement of rhodium precedes gold.
Stock markets: This indicator compares closing prices to growth rate curves of the SPX. This indication is the noisiest but tells us very well when the recession has ended. Stock market indices, which respond to “smart money” moving out of markets when the other indicators begin to warn of recession, or when markets become overheated and rise to historically unsustainable levels.
Yield curve: This indicator compares the 3m & 10y treasuries and detects yield curve inversions. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve and by the purchasers in the Federal Treasury auction markets, which together create the treasury yield curve. This inversion is the most reliable recession indicator. These happen during a flight to quality.
Federal Reserve: This indicator measures GDP and detects contraction which is technically a recession. This is usually one of the last indicators to enter a Warning state, and it could be 6 months delayed simply confirming what may have already been projected.
Money Supply. This indicator measures the M2 money supply, which typically grows about 1% per calendar quarter. When this shrinks, it's tapping the brakes on the economy. This can also lead to yield curve inversion. This is also a measure of inflation and its effects on the aggregate money supply (liquid capital) available for short-term economic activity, or which can be directed into the purchase of long-term, less liquid assets.
Leading Economic factors: There is a whole basket of leading economic indicators that, as collections, reflect overall growth or contraction of economic activity. These indicators include measures of level and growth in productivity, employment, housing, consumer confidence, industrial purchasing confidence, and much more. These indicators may or may not be detached from the broader economy, and often provide up to 6 months of foresight. For more information please visit www.conference-board.org
Actual Recession: Central Bank indicators are published by the Federal Reserve and reflect their own analysis of national and regional economic health, as well as their calculations of the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve has a recession ticker which is used to plot periods of actual recessions on this indicator for comparison. Indicador
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Multi Yield CurveAn inversion between the 2 year and 10 year US treasury yield generally means a recession within 2 years. But the yield curve has more to it than that. This script helps analysis of the current and past yield curve (not limited to US treasury) and is very configurable.
"A yield curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity." (Investopedia)
When the slope is upward (longer maturity bonds have a higher interest rate than shorter maturity bonds), it generally means the economy is doing well and is expanding. When the slope is downward it generally means that there is more downside risk in the future.
The more inverted the curve is, and the more the inversion moves to the front, the more market participants are hedging against downside risk in the future.
The script draws up to 4 moments of a yield curve, which makes it easy to compare the current yield curve with past yield curves. It also draws lines in red when that part of the curve is inverted.
The script draws the lines with proper length between maturity (which most scripts do not) in order to make it more representative of the real maturity duration. The width cannot be scaled because TradingView does not allow drawing based on pixels.
This script is the only free script at time of writing with proper lengths, showing multiple yield curves, and being able to show yield curves other than the US treasury.
█ CONFIGURATION
(The following can be configured by clicking "Settings" when the script is added to a chart)
By default the script is configured to show the US treasury (government bond) yields of all maturities, but it can be configured for any yield curve.
A ticker represents yield data for a specific maturity of a bond.
To configure different tickers, go to the "TICKERS" section. Tickers in this section must be ordered from low maturity to high maturity.
• Enable: draw the ticker on the chart.
• Ticker: ticker symbol on TradingView to fetch data for.
• Months: amount of months of bond maturity the ticker represents.
To configure general settings, go to the "GENERAL" section.
• Period: used for calculating how far back to look for data for past yield curve lines. See "Times back" further in this description for more info.
• Min spacing: minimum amount of spacing between labels. Depending on the size of the screen, value labels can overlap. This setting sets how much empty space there must be between labels.
• Value format: how the value at that part of the line should be written on the label. For example, 0.000 means the value will have 3 digits precision.
To configure line settings per yield curve, each has its own "LINE" section with the line number after it.
• Enable: whether to enable drawing of this line.
• Times back: how many times period to go back in time. When period is D, and times value is 2, the line will be of data from 2 days ago.
• Color: color of the line when not inverted.
• Style: style of the line. Possible values: sol, dsh, dot
• Inversion color: color of the line when the curve inverses between the two maturities at that part of the curve.
• Thickness: thickness of the line in pixels.
• Labels: whether to draw value labels above the line. By default, this is only enabled for the first line.
• Label text color: text color of value label.
• Label background color: background color of value label.
To configure the durations axis at the bottom of the chart, go to the "DURATIONS" section.
• Durations: whether to show maturity term duration labels below the chart.
• Offset: amount to offset durations label to be below chart.
█ MISC
Script originally inspired by the US Treasury Yield Curve script by @longfiat but has been completely rewritten and changed. Indicador
Historical US Bond Yield CurvePreface: I'm just the bartender serving today's freshly blended concoction; I'd like to send a massive THANK YOU to all the coders and PineWizards for the locally-sourced ingredients. I am simply a code editor, not a code author. Many thanks to these original authors!
Source 1 (Aug 8, 2019):
Source 2 (Aug 11, 2019):
About the Indicator: The term yield curve refers to the yields of U.S. treasury bills, notes, and bonds in order from shortest to longest maturity date. The yield curve describes the shapes of the term structures of interest rates and their respective terms to maturity in years. The slope of the yield curve tells us how the bond market expects short-term interest rates to move in the future based on bond traders' expectations about economic activity and inflation. The best use of the yield curve is to get a sense of the economy's direction rather than to try to make an exact prediction. This indicator plots the U.S. yield curve as maturity (x-axis/time) vs yield (y-axis/price) in addition to historical yield curves and advanced data tickers . The visual array of historical yield curves helps investors visualize shifts in the yield curve that are useful when identifying & forecasting economic conditions. The bond market can help predict the direction of the economy which can be useful in crafting your investment strategy. An inverted 10y/2y yield curve for durations longer than 5 consecutive trading days signals an almost certain recession on the horizon. An inversion happens when short-term bonds pay better than longer-term bonds. There is Federal Reserve Board data that suggests the 10y3m may be a better predictor of recessions.
Features: Advanced dual data ticker that performs curve & important spread analysis, plus additional hover info. Advanced yield curve data labels with additional hover info. Customizable historical curves and color theme.
‼ IMPORTANT: Hover over labels/tables for advanced information. Chart asset and timeframe may affect the yield curve results; I have found consistently accurate results using BINANCE:BTCUSDT on 1d timeframe. Historical curve lookbacks will have an effect on whether the curve analysis says the curve is bull/bear steepening/flattening, so please use appropriate lookbacks.
⚠ DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Not a trading system. DYOR. I am not affiliated with the original authors, TradingView, Binance, or the Federal Reserve Board.
About the Editor: I am a former FINRA Registered Representative, inventor/patent holder, futures trader, and hobby PineScripter.
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