Price Channel Strategy (Short Only)

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1. Core Logic: Price Channel Breakout (Downside)
The strategy uses one structural signal:
Lowest Low of the past 20 bars.
When the market breaks below this 20-bar low, a stop entry is triggered to open a short position.
Key design principles:
No prediction
No attempt to call tops
Pure reaction to market-confirmed downward momentum
This makes the strategy a clean representation of short-term downside inertia.
2. Directional Constraint: Short Only
This version trades only short positions, with no long exposure.
Rationale:
To isolate and study ETH’s microstructure during downside moves
To avoid noise from symmetric long/short signal conflicts
To treat this model as part of a controlled long–short comparative study
By eliminating long trades, the strategy provides clearer insight into bearish breakout behavior.
3. Risk Management: Fixed TP / SL
Immediately after entry, two fixed exit conditions are defined:
Take Profit: +10 price units
Stop Loss: –10 price units
Both values automatically convert into tick units using syminfo.mintick.
This reflects a classic scalping pattern:
Small but frequent profits
Fast stop-outs
High turnover
Sensitivity to short bursts of momentum
Such fixed exits are useful for analyzing whether short-lived selloffs contain exploitable structure.
4. Transaction Costs
For this specific analysis, transaction fees are intentionally excluded.
This allows:
A clearer view of the raw statistical edge
Isolation of pure signal behavior
Direct comparison with fee-inclusive results in prior tests
The fee-free backtest highlights the “theoretical edge” before real-market frictions are applied.
5. Data & Testing Window (2016–2025)
The model is tested on the complete ETH dataset from 2016 to 2025, without subjective filtering:
No removal of black swan events
No skipping flash crashes
No curve-fitting on sub-periods
This ensures the results reflect ETH’s full structural history, both stable and chaotic.
6. Interpretation & Research Value
This strategy is not presented as a predictive or production-ready trading system.
Its value lies in research utility:
Understanding ETH’s short-term downward momentum
Validating breakout-based scalping structures
Generating baseline data for more complex models
Supporting long-only vs. short-only comparative system design
Removing fees helps quantify the signal strength itself, while fee-inclusive tests can later show how much of that edge survives realistic trading conditions.