3070 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 10-12, TIME FOR NFP
There is only so much stalling price can do in the short term. At some point, medium-long momentum overwhelms the short term resistance. At 2657.xx as I type that's 413 pts call for exactly four weeks out. That is basically 100+ average each week from here to Halloween. In chart above, yellow is favored over both gray and blue.
There should be a fourth scenario where price moves for 2745 by end of Friday. This is a technical scenario to resolve all twisted trends in the last week. I don't have up because price did not take the first possible route to 2685 this time. In theory that does not matter because the medium term mean reversion acts counterintuitively in this scenario. But psychologically, it matters because that's basically +90 from here at 9:47 PM on Thursday. And I am tired of fucking waiting.
There should be a fourth scenario where price moves for 2745 by end of Friday. This is a technical scenario to resolve all twisted trends in the last week. I don't have up because price did not take the first possible route to 2685 this time. In theory that does not matter because the medium term mean reversion acts counterintuitively in this scenario. But psychologically, it matters because that's basically +90 from here at 9:47 PM on Thursday. And I am tired of fucking waiting.
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Nota
1) in chart above, here's how we judge the moving ceiling
2) first, if we make 2685 BEFORE LONDON, that implies higher than 2720s
3) or if we make 2717-22 by 10 AM ET...
4) it is just an function of how much time we have
5) other wise we hit that
6) Sunday night or Monday
7) this channel ceiling is 2762
8) so we target 2760-ish first
9) and deal with 2862 after that
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Nota
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1:43 AM, 2667, IF YOU PLAY CHART AT TOP:
1) price is slower than yellow now
2) but faster than blue
3) and that's pretty all there is to say
4) going to bed, will update/add notes in the AM
Nota
Nota
6) this means that ceiling today is about 2718-ish
7) and by channel I mean this one:
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10) continuing in chart above
11) so price is at 2661.66
12) it has NO REASON TO KEEP DROPPING
13) so ANYTHING UNDER THIS IS A DEALER BREAKER AND
14) A GIANT FUCKING PROBLEM if you are long
15) be aware
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4:52 AM ET, 10/04, I THINK THIS IS THE END, AND IT ENDS LIKE THIS:
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