I'M releasing last weekend's private idea post - what was posted at twitter and sent out to my email list- at the public post area as we broke above 1220 and our longs will be protected.
The original story was posted here:
We had a hammer printed on Friday. A few weeks ago (price was 1140$) I sent out an analysis in a private idea where I explained why I think we are in a bull market in gold . Those who followed my advice were able to jump on the gold train at 1140-1150$ and exit at 1214$.
In 2015 December we printed a multi year low. I know that many people are saying now we will be taking out that low. Even these traders must accept the fact that every year since 2011 we had at least one new yearly low on the gold chart. 2016 was an exception. In 2016 gold couldn't print a lower low after the 2015 bottom. So till now the 2015 low is a possible multi year low and as time passing by the 2016 December low will be a yearly low and will not be taken out for years and maybe for decades.
I mentioned in the last public idea that during the bear market from 2011 to 2015 how bear market rallies are topped and bottomed:
Banks are already positioning and when retail traders realize that it's a bull market we will be in the B wave where it will be much harder for them to make money. When they lose faith or lose all their money then will start the C wave and most of them will not be in the glorious C wave advance.
I'm sending out this private idea for you to see how well the Fibonacci retracement is working now in gold . We had a rally from 3rd December 2015 to 11st July 2016. 1. We printed a DCL at the FIB 38,2%. I was sure it was an ICL that time but the elections mixed up the whole picture. 2. Later we printed the final ICL almost exactly at the 78,6% FIB retracement on the 15th December... 3. WE started to rally from 1122 to 1220. This rally was a 38.2% pullback of the previous decline from 1375 to 1122... (there is the 2nd smaller FIBO retracement drawing for this) 4.And last week had a decline from 1220 to 1180 which is exactly the 38.2% pullback of the previous rally from 1122 to 1220...
As we printed a hammer on Friday bouncing from the 38.2% FIBO level and RSI 6 turned up from almost tagging the oversold territory I think we have a good chance that the daily cycle low is in and we are heading higher. Most traders underestimate what is coming now. We are entering into the 2nd daily cycle of this new intermediate cycle. The first daily cycle was damn powerful. 100$ rally. The second one is going to be even better : 120-160$. We might test or break marginally the previous high at 1375...
In Norse mythology, Thor is a hammer-wielding god associated with thunder, lightning, storms. The day of the week Thursday ("Thor's day") bears his name I think we are going to see gold prices above 1220 by next Thursday.
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It's Thor's day guys.
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My calculation shows NFP inthe US increased by 117.000 in January. Much lower than the market expectation of 178.000. Though this number looks a bit low I still dont think it will be higher than 130.000.
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To tell the truth my calculation for NFP was sh***. But it seems the number is meaningless now. The FED can raise only on the 15th of March at their next meeting. We will have one more NFP before that.
So here is a rally on news which is bad for gold. It looks bullish to me.
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DXY and USDJPY just broke down the bear flag
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shinsky
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What happened to your # 1 fan Bjorn? :D
shinsky
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Love the idea of private ideas. To be honest, I would even PAY for a subscription to it too! You've made me tons of money! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Roach
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Great! BTW, do we need to cut off some long position before NFP? Thanks!
leonarddavidson60
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Absolutely brilliat!!
shero
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Well done Arpi ... as usual,
Do you think Gold will be able to break the big declining trend-line that prevented its progress @1377 and is now @1300 ?
Don't we have to get a strong bounce in the US Dollar soon? Isn't it time?
Nightstar
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@bhowe Oh it's coming! The RSI on the weekly chart is incredibly oversold.. I have a feeling the Dollar will break 99 first and then we'll get a corrective rally of some sort which could translate into a corrective move in Gold. Arpi will want to dispute this of course but unlike him, I'm not yet convinced that the 1st DCL is behind us. Let's see what happens :)
bhowe
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@Nightstar, Makes sense to me. I have not been totally invested in miners because it doesn't feel right. Struggling here to break above 1220.
Sharky8899.
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DXY is already 40days into its DCL, also the DCL for DXY will be a ICL, i am expecting a bounce.
I also have the possibilty of gold recent high as a potential 32 day top and mybe a later DCL coming, just keeping my opptions open.
Whats your roughts Arpi?