Again, potential short trading setup on GOLD. Again, we will activate the order IF ONLY bears break and close below 1491 level. If the market sets new higher high the setup will be invalid.
I realize you have clearly stated this post/set-up is conditional. However, it seems like you (and 95% of this website) have been pretty much exclusively bearish on most (not all, but most) of your ideas on Gold. In my opinion people have seemingly been bearish on Gold since 1300 because they can't believe/don't want to believe that its on the verge of a record-breaking run (again); rather than actually delving into the macros, geopolitical, political and worldwide monetary policy decisions/actions behind the run they simply say its going to 1400 then 1300 then 1200 then 1000 then below 1000, after every positive movement.
You seem to post a lot regarding RSI Divergence, however, a divergence of 10 basically means nothing. RSI Divergence is overused and over-exploited because its one of the easiest oscillators to understand. Just because there is minor RSI Divergence doesn't mean Gold - or anything as a matter of fact - will tank 25%. It could mean in this case, Gold drops 5.00. To use RSI Divergence as a sole contributor as a major correction (as in some of your posts) is misleading to newbies.
I would be genuinely curious as to what geopolitical and political factors in your opinion would cause Gold to go down to say 1400 from 1494. Gold is not a stock and cannot be thought of or traded like one.
- zSplit
Stoic-Trader
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@zSplit, the way I see it, BOTH of you could be right. Of course, the current fundamental scenario is clearly bullish for gold. There is nothing indicating that it could go down to 1400. But that´s not what @VasilyPonomarev is suggesting... his targets are 1475 and 1450, which are very reasonable considering Gold is currently oversold. Therefore a short-term pullback is a natural and expected market reaction.
I also agree that using RSI div as a reversal indicator is way too simplistic... BUT it is a good measure that the market needs to catch some breath before continuing the trend.
Just my thoughts...
PaulDeep19131
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@luizhpj,
I understand what he posted above but if you look at many of his past ideas he has been consistent in indicating 1400 and into the 1300s on Gold, that is what I was referring to with that statement.
Not just him of course, but there is a difference between speculation, investing and just plain naivety against Gold going up just because one doesn't want to believe it. That is what we call a confirmation bias and its all over TV right now.
VasilyTrader
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@zSplit, hello and thank you for your comment.
Most of my trades are counter trend.
I have developed a strategy that is based on this rules and works perfectly for couple of years.
No matter what is the fundamental outlook, my rule is to consistently follow my trading plan.
If you have some experience trading financial markets you should know that the trending market always corrects. Our job is to identify when. If you check my last ideas on gold, you will notice that with my confirmation approach I have avoided false signals.
(And by the way you asked me to list some fundamental news that confirms my view: I don’t have any, I never trade fundamentals and never let the determine bias
PaulDeep19131
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@VasilyPonomarev, Thanks for the response and your opinion.
VasilyTrader
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@zSplit, welcome! I am always open for a good discussion :)
PaulDeep19131
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@VasilyPonomarev, :)
Stoic-Trader
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@zSplit, well I agree with you on that one... since we've been ranging below 1400 since 2013, it seems that we're not used to these new levels. To be honest I'm also guilty of looking for that "next big short trade" :)
VasilyTrader
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@luizhpj, yes, you are right! I am forecasting a trend violation and reverse. Just short term pullback
You seem to post a lot regarding RSI Divergence, however, a divergence of 10 basically means nothing. RSI Divergence is overused and over-exploited because its one of the easiest oscillators to understand. Just because there is minor RSI Divergence doesn't mean Gold - or anything as a matter of fact - will tank 25%. It could mean in this case, Gold drops 5.00. To use RSI Divergence as a sole contributor as a major correction (as in some of your posts) is misleading to newbies.
I would be genuinely curious as to what geopolitical and political factors in your opinion would cause Gold to go down to say 1400 from 1494. Gold is not a stock and cannot be thought of or traded like one.
- zSplit