GOLD 5-DAY EXTRAPOLATION
INTRO - Are we going down again? AGAIN? Will 2000 hold? Will Jerome Powell cut gold bugs a break on last day of January? Have I given up intermediate forecasting? Well, short term trend mapping says there's only one good trade ahead of FOMC. That is short Thursday night into Friday and Sunday.
DETAILS - I left off last post saying I caught a bearish signal. This thing has a 15-trading time-frame and it is actually binary. I call it a bearish signal because the leading move is without a doubt a retest of the recent low. Whether or not that holds IT WILL BE RETESTED AGAIN ON 01/30 or 01/31, two FOMC meeting and presser dates. The actual move that the signal is signaling starts after FOMC with floor and ceiling 2000+/-150. That much is dependable. Which way this will break is not knowable until we see 2000 level tested at least 2 more times.
DETAILS - I left off last post saying I caught a bearish signal. This thing has a 15-trading time-frame and it is actually binary. I call it a bearish signal because the leading move is without a doubt a retest of the recent low. Whether or not that holds IT WILL BE RETESTED AGAIN ON 01/30 or 01/31, two FOMC meeting and presser dates. The actual move that the signal is signaling starts after FOMC with floor and ceiling 2000+/-150. That much is dependable. Which way this will break is not knowable until we see 2000 level tested at least 2 more times.
Nota
THIS IS A TOTAL GENERIC - I have not detailed this move like I usually do. I will reconfirm the move before Thursday night.Nota
01/24, 8:07 AM, 2035.xxa) can't tell what it wants here
b) even though its 2035, I can't say it will keep going up
c) can't say it will drop, because it has almost past that point
d) so can't say anything, like a short term 50/50 triangle
e) this has decreased odds for a drop to 2002 Friday/Sunday
f) but I can't even say significantly
g) so I have nothing until something is obvious
Nota
h) so usually... if it's 6 pts from resistance (2034-2040) i) it's and easy call to say it will hit resistance right?
j) it's not obvious here though ...
k) so it's 8:21 as I am typing and the two spikes to to 2035 just withing the last hour...
l) was not "obvious" almost until a few minutes before (not enough warning)
m) and let's say it goes to 2040, can't tell what it's going to do either
n) so basically I have to watch 15-second bars to say what price is going to do
o) meaning the warning of an incoming move is 3-30 minutes, but closer to 3 mintutes
Nota
8:54 AM ET 2034.XX SO:Nota
a) in chart above, it's trying to do dark blueb) but because of the move to 2022 last night
c) the short term regressions wants "to turn down"
d) so it's slowly climbing at the edge of turning down
e) but bulls are at the edge of where the bollingers are squeezing
f) so yes, you can get a pop to 2050 here, but I cant call for it like previous spikes
Nota
g) 9:02 AM ET 2033.XX, so in chart above, what I mean is thish) I can't tell what it wants from here to Friday morning so next 48 hours
i) BUT WE CAN SAY THIS NOW:
1) if it takes the orange route FOMC favors true floor/ huge turning point
2) because last night I've ran the extrapolations for the orange move and
3) as long as we don't drop to 2017 today beating orange to 2000 (very unlikely now)
4) THAT MEANS EITHER BOTTOM IS IN OR GOING TO BE IN
Nota
9:15 AM HERE'S WHY THIS PART CAN'T BE "CALLED"a) in chart above, the two black arrows point at where the black wave turns down
b) that wave is important for this setup
c) orange arrow is what happened last night when it moved to 2022 AND stayed under 2024 for too long
d) so this made odds of black wave turning here strong 8 hours ago
e) support has come in to prevent that wave from turning
f) but the blue arrow on the right shows a situatuion where that "is prevented"
g) but that was because the supporting trends were still bullish
h) the siutation now is neutral support that just went 51-49 in the last hour or two
Nota
9:26 AM... and here is why when it was 2035-36, IT WASN'T OBVIOUS that we were moving for 2038-2040a) in chart above, this is that same black wave one chart up ZOOMED IN TO 2-MIN BARS
b) see? not strong, wants to turn down (later today)
c) but the REASON FOR THIS WEAKNESS IS LAST'S NIGHT MOVE TO 2022 (and stuck for too long)
d) AND this is why peole who say "short term manipulation doesn't matter"...
e) HAVE NO CLUE what they are talking about
f) you prevent the move to break 2040 the next day by selling it off during weak volume
g) THE NIGHT BEFORE
Nota
h) changing "the favored curve of price", WHICH IS EVERYTHING...Nota
9:39 AM 2026.66 ... see? ... a) but I couldn't call it bc bears have also missed THE WEAKEST window
b) so if they want orange route
c) THEY HAVE TO PROVE IT NOW by pushing 2017 AND HOLDING
d) obviously not favored for that anymore
e) so what then?
f) so not black and white, just gray all over, and INDECISION, and zig-zag
g) just wait til Friday morning
h) it will tell us what it's going to do by Thursday night
Nota
10:03 maybe we don't to wait that longa) so replay chart above, the gray route in that chart is same as the orange route we've been talking about
b) but the difference is now we know odds favor a true if floor if it goes that way
c) so a bit ago I said if bears want orange route, they have to push for 2017 AND HOLD
Nota
d) they just tagged 2019 a minute agoe) that's not even HALF WAY... because bounce reaction first...
f) then they have to sell it off AGAIN AND HOLD 2017 to make up for lost time
g) so that's why it's very "GRAY and NOT BLACK AND WHITE" right now
Nota
01/24 10:37 AM ET 2014.XX just saw on IDC/ICE tickera) so?
b) so route in chart at top is favorite WITH ONE notable underdog move
c) it's still too early to say anything
d) because we soOOOO oversold on a 10-min bar basis
e) we probably hit 2027-28 again tomorrow WHETHER OR NOT that route plays..
f) so it's a wrap for today and wait for a bounce tomorrow
g) and decision for Friday
Nota
10:46 AM SO:a) the left side of that box is FOMC
b) the right side of that box i NFP
d) whatever route we settle on (and yes we caught up to route in chart at top)
e) those two days decide where price ultimately goes
Nota
11:05 BECAUSE OF HOW STRONG THE SELL OFF IS here are the 3 scenarios in play:a) in chart above gray is same as chart at top (what it looks like now)
b) orange is same as gray, but with a "bottom in" scenario"
c) it just broke support to 2012 as I type ...
d) so BLACK IS IN PLAY
Nota
e) here: I didn't even think about it:Nota
f) the straight down selling and holding lows is A REALLY BAD SIGN FOR BULLS...g) but if bears want to CHANGE INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES IN A BIG WAY
h) they have to go to 2002 NOW, like today, AND HOLD IT...
i) otherwise the day to day regressions will just swing in that triangle
Nota
j) red was my worst case scenariok) but obvious didn't see support breaking IMMMEDIATELY... thought it would come later
l) anyway even though IT IS BEARISH AF RIGHT NOW... not much has really changed
m) need to see a close, a reaction, and then Friday, before MAJOR CHANGES
n) again, if bears close near 2002, that's something I haven't fully processed yet
o) meanwhile, it is 2014.xx as I type... and if bulls close 2020-ish
p) it could be 2030 tomorrow so it's not the end of anything YET... will add notes tonight
Nota
q) btw, if you replay chart at top ...r) price moved up past the gray route, then down past it again..
s) unless the floor falls out (and I don't see anything in the news to say that)...
t) WE ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A 2020-2023 close
u) all this does is TWIST THE TRENDS SO MUCH THAT I doubt price can move far from 2020-2023
v) there's even a "stuck at 2023 scenario for Friday"
w) so THIS CLOSE IS A BIG DEAL
Nota
OK 1:09 PM RAW ASSESSMENT a) in chart above, there is that big triangle
b) blue vertical is FOMC marker and black vertical is NFP marker
c) dark orange is the move that just happened, BEARISH AF
d) bc of two reasons
1) how fast it was
2) holding near the lows
e) but unless the floor falls out, which very unlikely by now here are the major extrapolations
1) dark blue is what happens if BULLS ARE STRONG AND WANT TO MAKE IT OBVIOUS
2) that would reverse all the damage to the trends
3) that also is very unlikely to happen
4) the favorite right now is gray based on price and time
5) the second place, NOT FAR BEHIND is regular blue
6) third place is light orange
7) last place is light blue (can't rule out yet)
Nota
f) so that means odds CURRENTLY favor a FAKE OUT BREAK OF TRIANGLEg) followed by strong move up
h) not worth speculating more than that until we see ALL OF THURS AND FRI
Nota
I) note that even though light orange is third placem) it does not have to "prove it"
n) meaning all it needs is sideways move to become strong favorite by FRIDAY AM
o) so "right now", the chart at top's bearish signal remain TOTALLY valid until proven otherwise
Nota
2:43 PM ET 2012.XX and doesn't want to stop going downa) so now light orange is favorite
b) with one even more bearish that will get to 1985
c) I'll post after the close
Nota
4:04 PM ET 2012.xx GOLD SUCKS, OK? STOP TRYING TO DEFEND IT. GOLD SUCKS MAJOR LEAGUE.1) first play chart at top again, so far, theory says the 2000 bottom CAN HOLD
2) why?
3) because before it PULLED DOWN HARD, IT PULLED UP FIRST...
4) so spatially (or in terms of area of chart), this has not proved that it more bearish
5) compared to chart at top
6) BUT TERRIBLE CLOSE
7) means bear and more bear
8) so throw away all the previous routes
9) there are now 2 routes
10) the implied price action says 2000 will not hold Friday after noon OR Sunday night
11) so now "we are in just how bad this gonna be" situation
12) blue route implies 1995 will hold and we begin to STEP UP AHEAD OF FOMC
13) orange route implies 1985, and that's just THE BEGINNING, OK?
14) so what now?
15) SHORT THURSDAY'S HIGH
16) SHORT FRIDAY'S HIGH
17) and we will see...
Nota
4:31 WHY I WAS NEUTRAL AHEAD OF THIS MORNING'S SPIKE DOWN:a) if you're new, in the previous post I had called for 2038 and 49 LAST NIGHT
b) but the moved to 2022 so wrong vs the trends that I said it was a legit bear signal
c) but woke up this morning to 2034-35-36, this move was wrong considering last night
d) so it just pulled 2 moves back-to-back that I could not see coming (couldn't prove it with trend math
e) so no way I was going to forecast the next move, just let it play out first and then f) its easier to get the following moves right after it has settled down
Ordem cancelada
8:32 2018.XX CANCELLED BECAUSE THERE'S NO BOUNCE, YETa) so it was supposed to be 2028 to short
b) but it has not made that move yet
c) so what if it does that move later (like within 4-5 hours)
d) that means I NEED NEW MAPS
e) I do not have time to do that today bc of kids' dr appointments
f) so I HAVE NO POSITION OR OPINION ON PRICE RIGHT NOW
Nota
g) BTW.... so there's no misunderstandingh) a late move up here IS NOT AUTOMATICALLY BEARISH OK?
i) usually that's true most of the time for the current short term trend
j) I AM NOT SURE THAT'S TRUE NOW
Nota
9:01 AM, I had a second to look at this and that is still truea) means if it bounces to 2028 you should short
b) but it's only 2019.xx now can it make 2028?
c) so micro trend maps under (1-, 2-, 3-min bars etc...) say that
d) bulls have about 4 hours left before they are exhausted
e) and it looks like they can tag 2026
f) I will not be live to say when it tops, so that I can't help
e) so the issue is if there's no bump higher, IS THERE VALUE TO SHORT?
f) bc the the sideways zig zag zone IS NOT THROUGH
g) in chart at top, the short I saw was for late tonight or Friday morning
h) in the first notes I said that chart was "generic" not detailed map
i) and that I needed to reconfirm Thursday night (tonight) to be sure
1) the move is right
2) there's actual value to take action
j) so that's it
k) I will post a note here and there if there's something worth posting about
l) but again 2028+ looks like a good short here
Nota
01/25 12:13 PM ET THURSDAY WRAP UPa) I'm really busy today so let's do all the notes now, I'll add notes around 10 PM if there's more to add
b) for chart above, blue and orange with the box at where price topped...
c) is the last chart posted at 4 PM yesterday
d) so price is currently weaker than BOTH OF THOSE ROUTES
e) so GRAY is UPDATED and favorite as of 15 min ago
f) first it doesn't matter if it has bottomed for RIGHT NOW
g) you can short again WHERE TWO ORANGE ARROWS ARE
h) the second top after midnight is THE HIGH VALUE SHORT...
Nota
i) even though gray is weaker than both blue and orange...j) the updated regressions show 2000 holding
k) AND FRIDAY MAY ACTUALLY CLOSE 2008-10 after a small bounce
m) for new readers, please be aware that these charts need notes/updates several times per day
n) in order to be relevant
o) so if PRICE disagrees, THEN SCRAP THE CHART!
Nota
p) finally the low in the afternoon should be around 2005-2006q) but under 2008 QUICKLY BOUNCE LIKE IT DID THIS MORNING AT 2009, so be aware
r) that's it until late tonight
Nota
1:45 PM ET, CLOSE SHOULD GO LIKE THIS:1) chart above is 1-min bar
2) if price breaks ABOVE HIGHER BOX...
3) that is a deal-breaker
Nota
2:52 PM SO HERE'S THE PROBLEM:Nota
3:08 PM, IF PRICE MOVES FOR 2023... a) in chart above, if price takes bullish path here ...
b) first, that kills my post (chart at top) pretty much RIGHT NOW ..
c) if it reverses down hard, NO CHANGE
Nota
3:56 PM ET 2019.XX THAT'S ENOUGH FOR ME TO FREEZE EVERYTHINGa) THIS MOVE FROM 2016-2019 IS IMPOSSIBLE
b) that's why I said that box is a deal breaker
c) bc the odds ARE SO AGAINST IT and yet it happens
d) logic says freeze everything, reconsider shorting tomorrow
e) but instincts say watch out for a bullish surprise tomorrow
f) today is FULL MOON
g) know what happens that day?
h) tides turn... ocean tides
i) what does that have to do with gold price?
j) logically, NOTHING
k) intuitively, MAYBE SOMETHING
Nota
01/25 6:01 PM 2020.XX -- SO NOW:a) in chart above
b) so gray is previous route now 2ND PLACE
c) blue is first place
d) will reconfirm and publish tonight
Nota
e) so the new five day is:f) don't know beyond that
g) bc it's effing waste of time to go past 4-5 days
Nota
6:15 PM ET --- I think I am right about this one. If it drops to 2016-ish go long tonight, stop at 13-14. But the AM checkdown is 2013-ish or a bit less. We should at leasta attempt 2030 or higher tomorrow.Nota
a) if it goes to 2023 now, it should move to 2016 next b) and then run up to midnight
c) then checkdown twice 3-am/8-am
d) then morning run all the way up
e) like the 3-4 previous Fridays though, once hit 33-38, willl probably drop hard
f) BUT NOT AS HARD
Nota
6:34 PM - Here is zoom in for tomorrow. Nota
8:29 PM ET:Nota
8:46 PM, so topped 23, WE SHOULD check 2016-17 before next top.a) but since this later in the move...
b) it will push the next top back...
c) to what looks like 3 AM?
d) that's about right
Nota
9:37 pm 2023.XX does not want to go to 2016.... SO IT'S GIVING A VERY BULLISH SIGNALa) for massive 60 pt spike, so 2083...
b) let me how fast the read is before we discuss how legit it actually is
Nota
9:51 PM ET... so here's what this means (and I don't this plays out) a) this is a legit signal, but usually for micro bars and not 2 hour bars
b) but it means we get to 2080 in 2 days from NOW finishing by this time on Monday
c) what reasons would there be for such a move?
d) and it doesn't matter if it goes to 2016 from here now, bc it already triggered the signal
e) let me look at calendar first
Nota
f) so tomorrow is PCE INDEX (and YoY), CORE PCE (and YoY)g) that is considered by many to be "Fed's favorite inflation indicator"
h) so we DO HAVE AN EVENT DRIVEN REASON
i) now let's confirm the bollingers for vol limits
Nota
j) vol limits ok k) that means base line is:
l) and RAW UNADJUSTED fair value is:
Nota
10:49 PM ET, SO UPDATED 5-DAY, BUT NEEDS EDITING/DETAILING:a) so now, if you see 2012-2016 (IF YOU DO)
b) STRONG BUY from what I can right now
Nota
11:57 PM I PROVED 2 THINGS1) signal is legit
2) but its route (light blue above) is too strong
3) so the "favorite" or base case right now is stronger than dark blue
4) but weaker than light blue above
5) but tomorrow's price action is still about the same
6) first check down, then 2038
7) so this post has ended
8) I got take my mom to surgery 5 AM tomorrow and won't get back until about noon
9) by which time we probably already hit 2038
10) so this post has ended
11) I will post next 5-day tomorrow afternoon
Trade fechado manualmente
THIS POST HAS ENDED. PLEASE DO NOT USE CHART AT TOP AS EXPECTATIONS HAVE MOVE 180 THE OTHER WAY. HERE IS NEXT 5-DAY:
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As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.