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4800 DRAFT 9-1, 2444 BY FRIDAY IT IS.

Introduction - London, of all places, vigorously defended 2373 and destroyed scheming bears' setup for 2285 this morning. Is this a sign that miracles do happen? No, it simply means 2444 is next. This also means a slow side-ways-to-up to 25xx in mid-May before MAJOR CORRECTION ahead of 6/12 FOMC. As always, we trade one day at a time and will cross that bridge if and when.

Details - There are two boxes in chart at top. Price in this setup will spend some time in first box, before moving to second box. It looks like next two legs up will both run during Asian sessions. The first Wednesday night NY time, and the second Thursday night NY time.

Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, that is limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else in your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!

Nota

11:09 AM ET, NOTES:
1) in chart above same red line and black line since Sunday night's 8-1 draft
2) new blue line
3) and dashed line here is local marker for 43-year trend line from 1981 (the year)
4) all other lines are gone bc we don't need them
5) but be aware of this channel here:

6) in chart above this is the current pattern implied by price action
7) now that we know 2275 is not an April target
8) but 2222 is an early June target from 2500-2525
9) will get into that later when it is more relevant

Nota

11:17 AM, drop to 23 84.xx and notes
a) bears gave up their last opportunity at 2373
b) and bulls also defended 2377 AGAIN this morning
c) this drop is a buy and AND SO IS EVERY DROP ON TOP OF BLUE LINE UNTIL 2444

Nota

11:30 AM ET 2385.XX so... barring an EXTREMELY LATE path to 2275 ...
a) this has been statistically eliminated
b) that doesn't mean it's impossible
c) I've just never seen it do that once the trend maps have changed this meaningfully
d) so with that said:

Nota

12:05 PM, there are a couple of notable scenarios that could play out
a) both of which involves higher prices (2550-2650) before 6/12 FOMC
b) one with gradual one way vol
c) one with high 2-way vol
d) but we need not take them seriously right now
e) bc they are FAR FROM BEING OBVIOUS
f) and require a number of lead-in moves that we need to see first
e) before they become realistic

Nota

12:28 just tagged 2379 under blue line should you be worried
a) no
b) of all the spots that bears could taken it down
c) they don't have a setup anymore
d) once price crosses this, it's all the way up, even if it has to zig zag 10 times to get there:

Nota

a) for chart above, basically price would be held under red line
b) same red line since Sunday night
c) that's not saying a lot bc that line drifts up slowly
d) but besides that, and maybe holding prices under 2380
e) I don't know what else there is to say
f) bc this move does not reverse up like yellow route
g) it's NOT GOING ANYWHERE QUICKLY because if this drop sticks and price closes 2380 or less...
h) this leaves the short to medium term trends in a CONVOLUTED SIDEWAYS MESS
i) with no resolution for days
j) that's a really ugly situation trading wise
k) bc there's nothing to trade

Nota

1:53 PM ET, Let me put it this way, what I have is a trend engine:

Nota

a) until last night, we had a shot for a DOWN TREND
b) and one that ended, it looked like we were going to do UP TREND
c) we need a yellow route close 2390+ after market for that to be true
d) so if this drop sticks and we close under 2380... it will kill the up trend
e) but is too late to "revive the down trend"
f) so you have a sideways trend between 2365 and 2390
g) until something breaks
h) thats what I mean by UGLY
i) I don't mean bearish, I mean NOWHERE

Nota

2:38 PM ET 2376.XX
a) if you don't think we can 2 months of something like that until 6/12...
b) it' starting to look like it ok?
c) very early.. but it's not pretty
d) give me bull, give me bear, just don't give me 60 days stuck between 2365 and 2390

Nota

a) in chart above
b) and they always have "rectangular looking price action"

Nota

c) I just talked to a few people about this the last couple of days
d) remember that post Rumors of a PIvot Part 3-6?
e) the part that missed the most, were those 2 months going sideways
f) because you NEVER FORECAST flat price action...
g) and would occur to you to forecast that for 40 trading days
h) because you assume once trends line up, decisive price action occures
i) because odds don't favor flat price action
j) but how many times have we stayed up "for a huge setup", and get like 8 pts and go to bed?

Nota

k) seems like that happen WAY MORE than it should...
l) arghh...

Nota

m) 3:00 PM 2374.XX, we're not going to make it
n) so what now?
o) NOWHERE UNTIL FRIDAY, OR LATER

Nota

3:14 PM, 2370.XX, through Friday, and maybe longer
a) why can't it be more bearish?
b) bc the setup is gone:

Nota

c) in chart above, see the black bold black line?
d) that's outline of black wave
e) it was TURNING DOWN AT the 2372 check down when I woke up and gave that signal
f) but after I went back to bed London pushed that wave back up
g) so much so that DESPITE THE DROP FRO 2395 to 2362 and 2368.xx as I type
h) it will still be going up, and is basically setting the floor, so we're not going anywhere

Nota

i) by the time it turns down, it will be from 2390s, while red wave will turn back up
j) while at that point blue will turn down
k) so what you get is sideways MOSTLY between 2370 and 2395

Nota

l) the earliest this situation will change is Sunday night

Nota

m) at the same time if you set black wave as period 4
n) then when it turns down, it will be higher than period 8
o) that's about the same as saying MA(12) is turning down while MA (24) is still going up
p) meaning price will pull back from 2395 to 2380
q) so now we are stuck in a sideways move until Sunday night
r) and while this CAN change Sunday night
s) it's not at all obvious
t) so scalp all you want

Nota

u) that's a wrap for this post
v) have a good one

Nota

7:52 PM ET ... 2367.xx, the aftermarket drop and close under 43-year trend line is a bear signal
a) but I don't know what what to make of it besides dropping the sideways zone 5-10 pts
b) bc the mean reversion still put price in that box above for Thursday
c) we will see about Friday

Nota

d) all I can say right now is price should stay in this red box:

Nota

e) this zone is much more unpredictable than u think
f) bears are trying to re create their bear setup
g) but they are out of position and at risk of mean reversion
h) which would trap price in red box and then black box

Nota

8:39 PM ET, 2368.xx, I HAVE A REALLY HARD TIME EXPLAINING THE LAST 2 MOVES ...
a) which is failure to close NY above 2375
b) AND THEN MOVE TO 2354 in aftermarket
c) trend engine is having a hard time explaining the failure of mean reversion in this box
d) so no calls right now until 10 AM Thursday
e) why?
f) this is when the trends will settle down into a pattern
g) until then, I expect price to stay in red box, that's it
h) what has made me shy from calling next series of price action
i) is that the move from 2395 is very artificial
j) and that the AFTER MARKET CLOSE IS UNDER 43 YEAR TREND LINE
k) so I need to see more to understand the bigger picture

Nota

l) from the point of view of trend engine, price escaped the bear route this morning
m) but is being ARTIFICIALLY FORCED BACK DOWN
n) in the sense that the odds for the move to under 2377 is very low
o) to 2362 very very low, and to 2354 just STUPID LOW
p) and yet it happened
q) so it seems "artificial or man-made" for lack of better words to explain it
r) so I gotta sit this one out until I make sense of it

Nota

s) the only thing to add to that, is if price moves under 2363, the target is 2340
t) but anything under 2340 is very unrealistic, even for artificial moves

Nota

u) no, 2325 is the floor for such a move
v) but would bounce hard to 2340 once it gets there

Nota

w) so limit for this "artificial trend" is 2325:

Nota

1) in chart above, that's just based on this move by itself
2) not something that trend engine is "calling"
3) because the "natural" move here would be mean reversion sideways in that black box
4) that I talked about before the close
5) so be aware, and have a good night

Nota

4/18, 8:21 AM, natural move it was, and that implies:

Nota

a) in chart above, after red box, mores side-ways (to up) in black box
b) I am aware of cross market vol for what happened yestereday
c) but if it's not a huge liquidity problem, I'd rather create a solution for that type of a situation
d) rather than just say "nasdaq sell off, blah blah, not my fault"
e) that's weak, bc yeah you can catch that move
f) bc what's not obvious to one method, can be completely obvious to another method
g) yesterday, it was obvious but not for a trend enginge
h) so then?
k) so then sideways continuation in this black box of which there are two routes
l) and bull route is more favored
m) but bears have managed to stop stretch their dead setup into one more check-down if it plays
n) so that would look like

Nota

o) long story short here, continued sideways in black box trap
p) if price takes bear route check down, then trap will last EVEN LONGER
q) only bulls have enough momentum to break black box end of Friday
r) and it's NOT AT ALL OBVIOUS THEY CAN
s) so base case remains the same until there is a setup to break the box
t) in this situation, this type of "trend based" forecasting is ineffective for the purposes of day trading
u) why?
v) bc price is stuck in a trend-less situation and often changes 180 ...
w) at the point of signaling commitment
x) meaning I would get the signal for trend commitment, but price does the opposite move because of mean reversion

Nota

y) I would have to be updating TRULY CONTINUOUSLY with 15-sec and 30-sec bars
z) to avoid mean-reversion whip-lash

Nota

Thursday AM, Early Wrap Up: ]

1) in chart above, editing from 2-min bar says same thing
2) trend favors bull move
3) pattern favors bear move
4) not enough vol and too much mean reversion for me do "reconciiliation"
5) which is a highly detailed process to accurately map price
6) only worth doing if trend and pattern agrees on a big move
7) otherwise in sideways market, by the time I figure it out, move has reversed
8) you want to root for bulls here, bc bears are not as strong as they seem
9) I doubt that they have more than 1 big push down left in them
10) and yes, I am accounting for NASDAQ sell off continuation

Nota

9:02 AM ET, MY USE OF THE WORD "OBVIOUS":
1) the whole point of forecasting is timing a big move
2) big 1 way moves require trend and pattern agreement (in a big way)
3) meaning any big move worth talking must be obvious from a trend-engine stand point
4) even medium-sized moves require more agreement than I once thought
5) goes back to my theory that forecasting systems are weak in sideways markets'
6) bc they are programmed to catch "a big move"f
7) that's a wrap for Thursday

Nota

4/18 BLACK BOX TRAP UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY
a) so having taken check-down to 2368
b) price has indicated that this sideways black box should continue
c) through, Fri, Mon, and may take all of next Tuesday
d) so absent a bullish miracle, more sideways between 2365 2395

Nota

e) next move should be bull route now that we are done with check down:

f) but it stall at 2395 again
g) if and when it pops at end of the move
h) that move is unlikely to escape the box
i) leading to sideways and back down

Nota

j) like this, but staying on the upper half of this box until Tuesday
k) if bulls pull this off, they have a shot at breaking this box next Wednesday

Nota

... so then there's basically two ways this plays out next 2 weeks:

Nota

... on a medium term basis, it's hard to see how we move UP OR DOWN:

Nota

12:41, Remember that next FOMC is 5/01.
a) odds can change, sure
b) but with 9 trading days to FOMC
c) looks like bulls have conviction holding 43-hear trend line which is 2363 and SLOWLY CLIMBING
d) at the same time, sellers at 2400 are staying and only have 1 day out of the next 9
e) that they might get out of the way
f) so what?
g) sideways base case reinforced until May 1st FOMC
h) of course mostly between 2367 2392 and that's pretty much a wrap for next 2 weeks

Nota

1:44 PM AND THAT'S THE END FOR 9-1, HERE IS 9-2:

4800 DRAFT 9-2, GOLD IS GETTING READY TO GO ... NO WHERE

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