Pros REER based TRY undervaluation: 47% National Bank stepped in to protect TRY Key to this position: limited market volatility and risk-on sentiment It is relatively expensive to short the TRY
Cons Long-term fundamentals gloomy for Turkey
Comentário
⋅
Tomorrows CBT interest rate decision critical risk-event. Market is pricing a hike of roughly 50-75 bps on average, anything below that means TRY under attack again.
Comentário
⋅
Setup playing out well: Turkey announces a 125bp hike in the repo rate, thats more than expected, lira on the frontfoot
Ordem cancelada
⋅
No positioned opened on this setup, very speculative, hard to build an edge on a market where Central Banks can intervene at any moment.