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Cup and handle (years range)

FX_IDC:USDBRL   Dolar Americano / Real Brasileiro
137 vizualizações
USDBRL graph did form a cup and handle pattern that has started on 2002 and was broken only on 2019. When R$4.00 line was crossed, it set a target on R$6.40/R$6.50 (18% upside). However, this week the upside channel has been broken and on Friday market tried to rally back but closed almost at same price it opened (kind of shooting star pattern, but on a descending trend, not reversal). It might mean that market is heading for a consolidation, before it proceed to the cup and handle target.

Few macro things might need to play for the final run - further delay on COVID peak, increase on political turmoil, second wave of COVID on other countries, delay on vaccine, MMT in BRZ , further decrease on local interest rates (probable), etc.

This is my first graph shared, so if you feel is helpful somehow for the community, please let me know so I can continue sharing other ideas (like, comment, sharing, etc).

Stay safe.


Scudino, with most of the macro points being very likely (second wave of COVID, vaccine only by the end of the year, slow response from government due to political tensions and a further reduction on interest rates), do you believe a slower recovery of our economy, in comparison with first world economies, should increase even more the dollar value in the longer run?
Great anlysis, excellent point of view!!
Scudino RenanSimas
@RenanSimas, thanks for the recognition. Looking forward to help our community and also learn from it.

Stay safe.
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