Here we have the QQQ 3X fund, testing a key area. Not only are we testing a key area, but "large-risk" (largER anyway) is currently sitting -68% from the all time high.... Even more weird, when the whole world economy was shut down in 2020, TQQQ contracted -73.28%; oddly enough, at least in this view... we bounced at... -73.28%. (these measurements could be off by a few percentage points I just measured it once and they happened to be the same measurement.
Anyway, this looks like a good risk reward entry. I have bought and will continue to provide updates. For now, I have bought with the expectation that price will test the all time high from here.
God bless.
Trade fechado manualmente
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Following up on this post. I think it prudent to hold off on any further purchasing of TQQQ. In general, I am suspect of the market overall, especially with oil looking like it needs to correct / pull back. In the meantime, let's wait for a more convincing bottom to develop in stocks.
I should acknowledge, this post has received more likes than what I usually see. I suspect this is due to the likelihood that "people are ready to buy again"...? I don't know. At any rate, we need to wait a while longer.
Last, I sold all of my tech stocks at open on Monday, 6/27.
I've been looking at this too and comparing TQQQ to NDQ. Your observation feels right, but keep in mind that's if "all other things are equal." The difference will be the remaining FED rate hikes and the commencement of quantitative tightening during June. This probably will make any further downside pressure a bit stronger than what we saw during the covid drop, but won't change the fact that when it's finally over, the ensuing rebound will be rewarding for those prepared for it.
ruby_redusa
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@MadStacks, when will the tightening be finally over ? It hasn't even start yet just asking
CrashBandicoot99
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You think the market will retest all time highs???
ChiefMacro
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@RocketFuel20, eventually - yes we will test the high. I am concerned as that this has continued to deteriorate. Looks like the covid bottom is very much in play.
CrashBandicoot99
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@CHIEF_MACRO, Thanks! There is speculation that the fed will have to pivot and reverse course with interest rates. And turn on the printing press again. Then stocks would rise again. We will see. I do agree with falling oil prices…but that may be good for the overall market where it would be spun as saving the consumer money and avoiding recession. At the same time…everything could just keep tanking.
ChiefMacro
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@RocketFuel20, you cannot trade "there is speculation that the fed will..."
CrashBandicoot99
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@CHIEF_MACRO, agreed….more so hypothetically what would be the next catalyst for higher prices.
ChiefMacro
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@RocketFuel20, hey, if knew the answer to that, I wouldn't even bother with tradingview! 😉
That said, I suspect we probably need to see commodity prices stabilize before getting involved with stocks again. From there, I would suggest being on the lookout for commodity-adjacent companies to lead the next bull run, back to all time highs. Again, just a theory.
Maybe also go back and take a look at the S&P 500 in the late summer of 2008. I think most people remember the selloff that took place in '08 and the fallout that resulted (GFC); I suspect most people overlook the fact that the '08 selloff was in fact a double top that followed a relatively long bull run. So what led the recover from October 2002 - August 2008? Just some food for thought.