This topping area has taken 2 years to top. That would make this top a HUGE top and we could presume it could take more than 2 years to play out the bear market. To me this top is similar to most tops before bear markets, expect that it is much larger in every way than any other top. This top is the Top to rule all Tops. What could this mean. You do not have get rich, just protect your assets in case a global depression were to occur. The rest of the world's markets topped in January 2018 when we first got our first monthly RSI high. So the rest of the world has been in a bear market now for a year and a half. The world is holding on for the US and CHINA for fall to rap this macro econ case all up.
The Charts are giving us a very clear range that we have been in for the last 2 years. IF, the lows of this topping consolidation break then it will be a bear market crash. That easy. I have never successfully traded a whole market cycle, but it has been on my bucket list and I am excited for the trading possibilities, but also a little concerned about the world's outlook.
This could be the final countdown for a swing short, don't get complacent with this choppy market. The long term rewards can be life changing.
We are currently living at a very unique point in time. We have Triple Drive Bearish Divergences on both the MONTHLY and the 4 HOUR. This is a wonderful setup as i don't know if we have even had many triple drive monthly divergences is Incredibly RARE. And to have a confluence with a 4 hour triple drive bearish divergence. If this range i have outlined is not respected and we get and hold above it then I would fade out of my short positions.
Good luck my friends.
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We could run up before Powell speaks in the hearings. Looking for selling thereafter or before.
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It has Begun.
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I am very interested in this high Volume Bar. This is most likely our sign that this little hump is done for, and we stagnate and then drop from here
Nice graphic work PipM. Don't be surprised if a grand finale occurs around the FOMC with an enormous shooting star to mark the end of cycle. It did this on 19 May and 02 Sep 2008; big spikes before the fall.
These short bear rallies are not a new bull market- but they can be surprising and short covering drives them higher- Don't be fooled!
BTW current pattern looks very similar to 2000 dot-com breakup, big downdraft; terrific rally out of the hole then the H&S appears. Looks like current price pattern conforms to 20-28 May 2002 in weekly.
In 2007 we see it again, H&S from April-Dec, with the weaker, skinny right shoulder in December followed by a sale, a Fibo bounce to May 2008, then the 'h' selloff. IMO we are within 3-6 weeks of cataclysm.
altinAdam
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Great analysis. Thanks!
DaddySawbucks
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Sold my calls in the open Friday. Went into puts when the resistance at 299 generated the intraday megaphone. Expect a brief rally Monday and more heavy selling 7/23. Ty 4 updatz!
tstonger
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So it is still in an uptrend then...do not swim upstream.
DaddySawbucks
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@tstonger, Yes, but briefly... I closed my put farm today actually made out okay, as gaps tend to close. There will likely be a FOMO explosive burst before the rollover, surrounding FOMC on 31 July. Possible new ATH on 2 Aug or in week of 5 Aug. Don't stay too late at this party.
tstonger
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@DaddySawbucks, Today we had confirmation of yesterdays breakdown...now we need to see the current support line get gapped out tomorrow...then you will have a good signal to put this once again Dollar Dad.
DaddySawbucks
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Pattern reminds me strongly of the ATH retest with rejection last summer. Watching this closely. Should the Fed bring Christmas in July it will rocket. 25-basis point cut is already priced in.
DaddySawbucks
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Independently arrived at the same opinion on Dow index see my latest pub on Triple Drive to ATH. GLTA!