The S&P 500 has once again broken below the 500 day Moving Hull average (black line). The previous break back in September that I called managed to eventually reverse back up to new highs a few weeks later. But momentum has been trailing off despite the new highs. Will this aging and tired bull market be able to recover again or do we finally get a bear market? I'm betting on a bear market. The covid news is just the trigger, a bear market has been overdue for a long time.
If the Biden administration and/or the Fed start pumping trillions into the system again we might ramp back up, risking further high inflation and possibly even hyperinflation. It's a sad state of affairs when things have become so bad that the risks of further market manipulation to avoid a down market are starting to look much worse than the down market. How did we ever get to this point?
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This call was a bit early, but clearly the 500 Moving Hull average has been a great indicator for getting out of this market near the top. Bear market is firmly on.