Crude Oil Gives up OPEC Cut Gain

6 de mai. de 2023

OIL STRATEGY POWER SELL

Already predicted the Fall of ENERGY and Oil months ago.

Crude oil prices edged lower Monday, extending a two-week slide in which macroeconomic concerns and signs of weakening refined product demand have outweighed a surprise supply cut made by some OPEC+ members on May 2.

A group of large oil producers led by Saudi Arabia said Sunday they would cut more than a million barrels of output a day starting next month, a surprise move that upset Washington and led to a jump in crude prices amid concerns about the global economy.

The output cut adds to a reduction of 2 million barrels a day agreed to in October by the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of other producers led by Russia. Taken together, the output cuts amount to about 3% of the world’s petroleum production taken off the market in seven months.



Futures on WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, declined more than 1% Friday's closing price and were trading for less than $76 a barrel, about where they settled on March 31, the last trading day before the surprise cut was made. That's down from a peak of over $83 a barrel reached in the second week after the oil cartel's announcement.

Analysts are pinning today's drop on Chinese government data released over the weekend showing that manufacturing activity fell between March and April. China is the world's second-largest consumer of oil, behind the U.S.

6 de mai. de 2023

Nota

Week Ahead - May 8th

The upcoming week in the US will be dominated by news related to prices, including the inflation rate, producer prices, and export and import prices, as well as the Michigan consumer confidence CPI gauge. Additionally, CPI figures are scheduled to be released in China, Mexico, Brazil, India, and Russia. In the UK, the Q1 GDP growth data will be released, and investors will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision. Elsewhere, China is set to publish external trade data, and Australia will report on consumer and business confidence.

6 de mai. de 2023

Nota

Oil Soars As U.S. Job Market Stays Strong

traders bet on a rebound after the recent sell-off
WTI oil moved above $71.00 as traders reacted to the Non Farm Payrolls report.
Brent oil settled above $75.00
WTI oil rallied as recession fears eased after the release of Non Farm Payrolls report. Traders used the recent sell-off as an opportunity to build long positions in WTI oil.

If WTI oil climbs above the $71.70 level, it will head towards the resistance at $72.70. A move above $72.70 will push WTI oil towards the $74.00 level.

R1:$71.70 – R2:$72.70 – R3:$74.00

S1:$70.30 – S2:$69.20 – S3:$68.00
Brent oil has also managed to gain strong upside momentum in today’s trading session as risk appetite increased.

If Brent oil moves above the $75.50 level, it will head towards the resistance at $76.25. A move above this level will push Brent oil towards the $77.50 level.

R1:$75.50 – R2:$76.25 – R3:$77.50

S1:$74.60 – S2:$73.00 – S3:$71.70
Crude oil markets have fallen a bit significantly during the trading week, only to turn around and find plenty of buyers willing to step in and trying to pick the market back up. By doing so, the market continues to see extreme volatility.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell rather hard during the trading week, as we continue to see a lot of negativity around the idea of global demand. However, the $65 level offered enough support to turn things back around, and it now looks as if we may be trying to find the bottom of a summer range.

This does make a certain amount of sense, as the market tends to find some type of area that it wants to trade in during the “summer driving season” in the United States. If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick though, that would lead to even further losses, and would show that the economy is coming undone completely. On the upside, the 50-Week EMA sits right around $81.65, and that’s somewhere near the top of this overall consolidation area.

Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
The Brent market also fell rather hard, breaking below the $70 level at one point during the week. However, we have turned around quite drastically to support that area, and now it looks like Brent is finding its own range as well. The 50-Week EMA sits near the $86.50 level, and is offering a significant amount of resistance. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the tale of the candlestick for this week, that would be a very negative turn of events and could send this market down to the $60 level.

Again, both grades of oil are going to be paying close attention to the global economy, and the turnaround that we had seen late in the week was a little bit suspicious, as if somebody was stepping in and trying to support the market.