NZDUSD One more leg up before down move

11 de jun. de 2016

Price broke through the double top, and retested it. Look for one more leg higher to hit the 38.2% FIB from the long down move on the HTF, which also coincides with the previous high (and also role reversal level), and also the top of the corrective channel. There's a gap that has not been filled yet in that leg higher. We have bearish divergence on the MACD, and there is a 5 wave pattern on the 4H TF which is being supported by the small trendline posted in the chart. Wave 5 is about to finish at that top. All down hill from there as this is a corrective structure, and we should see an impulsive move to see lower lows.

11 de jun. de 2016

Nota

12 de jun. de 2016

Nota

If we see a break of this trendline, then we should look out for where B forms, and make a measured move to see where price needs to go before the move up to .7200

14 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Price should not fall too deep in order to reach the .7200 level. So adjusted my entry to go long to below. The 38.2% location should finish off the A=C pattern to send prices up. We also see a falling wedge with a bias to break to the upside.

15 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Price bounced right off of the 38.2%. Looking for a break of the descending channel to make its way up to the .723 level.

15 de jun. de 2016

Nota

15 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Break of the channel.

16 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Start of the new 5 wave up. Will be tracking this up to the sell area around .723

18 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Still gunning for that .723-5 level. We see a support trendline holding prices up. If we take that same trendline and use it as a resistance level, we can create a channel that moves perfectly into that area we're looking for to go short. I'm going to play this channel to scalp intraday shorts/long until we get to the desired price to go short.

19 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Since Friday, price created a small mini channel within the larger channel with similar angles as the larger channel. This tells me that the larger channel is correct, and that we're going to play inside of it. Now, when we focus on the smaller channel, price hit the top of it, and it looks to be heading down towards the bottom where it also meets the 23.6%fib level. I'm not expecting a break down of this channel, but rather a break out to the topside. If you look at the larger channel structure, we're coming off of an impulsive upward move after touching the bottom of the channel. Price is now consolidating, so we should see another impulsive move until we reach the top of the larger channel, which will then bring prices down. I have a stop at .7030, if it breaks down past that and goes towards the bottom of the channel, then I will buy again and play the channel.

20 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Price looks to have made a fakeout by breaking under the trendline, but is pulling back above it on the lower time frames. If the hour candle closes above, I'm looking to add another long on the retouch of that trendline.

20 de jun. de 2016

Nota

DXY is moving up, price didn't bounce off the trendline as I expected, but rather broke through. Could be another fakeout, but I'm leaning towards the fact that price may fall down further to make a deeper wave 4 than a shallow one as I expected. Not adding on the long. Holding out on doing anything more on this one for now.

20 de jun. de 2016

Nota

21 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Price did not take the steeper route to create the 4th wave. The trendline it was lining up with held and brought prices higher. We finished the 5th mini wave, and also an ABC correction. On the 5min TF, we can see another 5 wave count developing to the downside to create the larger 4th wave into the level I thought price could have gone to in the previous comment. Taking shorts at .71419 and targeting .70688 levels.

22 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Price never made the deep retracement to the 4. It was actually rather shallow, and created the 5th wave to touch the top of the channel I created. I took a short right at the top at .71850. This looks like it might want to go back to the bottom of the channel to get enough steam to make it to .725. Holding this short until we get to that bottom level.

23 de jun. de 2016

Nota

Price has broken through resistance, and is looking to head up. No more down moves here. Looking for longs. Price respected the bottom of the range from back in the 1990's, so we're looking as the top of that same range as our target.