Surely looks like a big drop coming soon. I will not be surprised if the Hedge funds would want to manage mid year performance, keeping it above 0.712 in the week ahead COT reports indicating the kiwi being bearish in the month to come and the US Dollar bullish
Alternative view could be that 2016 closed at 0.69195, Q1 was up 1.23% closing at 0.70049. At Friday's close the kiwi is 5.2% up YTD. As hedge fund if you want to manage expectations this midyear performance could be seen as too high, year-end projections best case scenario is around 1.5%-2% vs 2016 but most likely to be around 0.5%-1% If this scenario plays out we could see the week ahead close below 0.708
From a technical point of view I cant see it staying at current levels much longer. Drop early in the week and then manage the alternative above?
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The Kiwi has been real stubborn, might be eyeing a move between 0.732 & 0.735. Anything below 0.73758 is still bearish
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Enough evidence of divergence? I think so! On borrowed time now
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The Kiwi bulls have attempted to push for a higher high vs. Jan/Feb. Does not seem likely and until that point my strategy still stands