NASDAQ

10 de out. de 2024

Overview
Market: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 Index)
Time Frame: 1-hour chart (indicated by the "1H" labels)
Key Concepts: The chart incorporates Wyckoff methodology, harmonic patterns, and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Key Components
Market Phases:

Phase A: Indicated at the bottom of the chart, represents the initial accumulation phase.
Phase B: The current market phase where distribution is occurring, highlighted by significant price levels and the potential for selling pressure.
Phase C: Marked on the chart as a potential accumulation phase after distribution completes.
Significant Price Levels:

Support and Resistance:
Resistance line at around 20,233.3, acting as a critical level to watch.
Support levels at 19,962.5 and 19,744.5.
Invalidation Points:
Points where the bullish or bearish bias may change if reached, such as the "INVALIDATION POINT" at 20,318.5.
W Close: Marked at 20,318.5, indicating a significant price area related to potential price reversals or continuation.
Harmonic Patterns:

ABC Structure: A visible ABC structure can be identified, with specific Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting potential reversal or continuation points.
Potential for Further Downside: The labels suggest that further downside movement may occur after a retracement, with potential targets outlined.
Volume Profile:

The volume histogram at the bottom shows trading activity across price levels, providing insight into areas of high interest and potential supply/demand zones.
A significant spike in volume is often indicative of potential reversals or continuation patterns.
Fibonacci Levels:

Retracement Levels: Specific Fibonacci levels are marked, such as 0.236 and 0.272, which indicate potential reversal zones.
Extensions: Levels like 1.236 help in identifying possible price targets or extensions based on the harmonic pattern identified.
Trading Signals:

"SOW IN PHASE B": This indicates selling opportunities within the current phase.
Targets for Short Positions: Target prices for potential shorts are mentioned, such as 19,744.5 (indicating a drop from the current price).
Conclusion
This chart provides a comprehensive analysis based on Wyckoff's distribution and accumulation phases, supported by harmonic patterns and Fibonacci retracement levels. The trader should focus on the critical price levels mentioned, watch for volume changes, and consider potential entry/exit strategies based on the outlined phases and patterns.

10 de out. de 2024

Nota

Economic Events and Their Potential Impact on the NASDAQ
Core Inflation Rate MoM (September)

Actual: 0.3% (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%)
Impact: Bearish
Reason: A higher-than-expected core inflation rate indicates rising inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy (e.g., raising interest rates). Higher interest rates can negatively impact growth stocks, particularly in tech sectors represented in the NASDAQ.
Core Inflation Rate YoY (September)

Actual: 3.2% (Forecast: 3.2%, Previous: 3.1%)
Impact: Bearish
Reason: While it met expectations, the fact that it remains elevated could signal persistent inflation concerns, potentially leading to further rate hikes by the Fed, impacting equity valuations negatively.
Inflation Rate MoM (September)

Actual: 0.2% (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.1%)
Impact: Bearish
Reason: The higher-than-expected MoM inflation rate could signal increasing price pressures, reinforcing concerns about the Fed’s monetary policy stance, which may lead to higher borrowing costs for companies in the NASDAQ.
Inflation Rate YoY (September)

Actual: 2.5% (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 2.3%)
Impact: Bearish
Reason: This slight increase above expectations can be interpreted as a sign of persistent inflation, likely prompting the Fed to maintain or increase interest rates, negatively affecting tech stocks.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) (September)

Actual: 314.80 (Forecast: 314.86, Previous: 314.90)
Impact: Neutral
Reason: The CPI figure was slightly below the forecast but generally stable. Since this data can be seen as not dramatically changing the inflation landscape, it may not cause significant volatility in the NASDAQ.
CPI s.a. (Seasonally Adjusted) (September)

Actual: 314.121 (Previous: 314.4)
Impact: Neutral
Reason: Similar to the CPI, this indicates stability, which may not provoke strong market reactions but keeps the focus on inflation trends.
Initial Jobless Claims (October 5)

Actual: 225K (Forecast: 230K, Previous: 227K)
Impact: Bullish
Reason: A lower-than-expected jobless claims figure suggests a strong labor market, which can bolster consumer spending and confidence. Strong employment data is generally positive for equity markets, including the NASDAQ, as it can lead to increased spending and economic growth.
Summary of Overall Impact
Bearish Indicators: Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM, and Inflation Rate YoY are likely to have a bearish effect on the NASDAQ due to concerns about rising inflation and potential Fed rate hikes.
Neutral Indicators: The CPI and CPI s.a. data are expected to have a neutral impact as they do not deviate significantly from expectations.
Bullish Indicator: Initial Jobless Claims could provide a slight bullish sentiment, reflecting a strong labor market and supporting consumer spending.
Overall Outlook
Given the predominant bearish signals from inflation-related data, the NASDAQ may experience downward pressure. However, the bullish sentiment from jobless claims could provide some support, leading to a mixed or cautious trading day. Traders should be aware of the potential for volatility as markets react to these economic indicators.

10 de out. de 2024

Nota