I think a lot of people are thinking that yields will head lower from here, just like they have previously, but I think that bonds will follow the trend that they did last year (which is down), rather than move higher going forward.
If you look at the chart, we're in a bearish trend. We're currently below the key support of $101.58. What looks most likely to me is that we move up to retest that support as resistance, and if we can't break above it, then the most likely path is further down.
If you look at the chart we have a long way lower to go. I think we're in a new trading environment. We have ended the 40 year trend of the long bond and now we're going to reverse the other direction for a sustained trend.
Comentário
⋅
Looks like it just wants to go down from here
Comentário
⋅
Okay, finally getting the move higher. Going to wait until price hits $101 and see how it reacts, if it rejects, should setup a good short
Comentário
⋅
Once it taps $101.58, that will be the signal to short everything.