-Gold is currently starting a long-term parabolic trend, spurred on by the addition of trillions of dollars by central banks around the world, near 0% interest rates that will be held for years to come, and immense economic and monetary uncertainty. For these reasons my macro analysis is premised on a very bullish outlook. Declining real GDP growth will also greatly exacerbate the weaknesses of the USD, as will rising foreign tensions and a re-structuring of world economies to become more regionally focused, so that we may overcome unemployment at the expense of higher costing consumer goods.
-Short-term, I think this pull back in gold is a good buying opportunity. The price is in a consolidation triangle and has spilled out much volume through panic selling, but I believe this will be short lived from a longer-term support line that coincides with the bottom of the triangle. My trade is premised on a breakout opportunity on the upside, which will initially cause short covering and lead to some bullish exuberance. I think the stock will find its way into this more stable up-trend until it reaches the top of the parabolic ceiling, whereby it will then consolidate and conduct a real retracement from the 1850-1900 level.