GBPUSD - Assaulting the newest swing high on Monday

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FX:GBPUSD   Libra Esterlina/Dólar Americano
Although I have just published a Long analysis on GBPCAD , this chart paints a different picture. According to @Mango2Juice 's Correlation Matrix, the correlation between GBPCAD and GBPUSD is fairly limited, even though both pairs share a base currency.

Anyway, GBPUSD is in a down-slope channel and has rallied quickly from its latest visit to the bottom line. Right now, it is approaching a swing high GBPUSD made as it was dropping (black thick line).

On the one hand, if the assault is successful, the pair will probably continue as far as 1.4 (red thick) but may stop or reverse around 1.39 (red thick) as the local high over there looks pretty convincing.

On the other hand, the price might break the black level for liquidity and continue downside. I give more probability to this scenario because the long-term channel doesn't have to be broken, not permanently.

Furthermore, the projection of the last breakout suggests great RR if short is opened on the level it points to. And lastly, look into a purple ellipse. A sufficient number of wick in the area reveal some selling activity there. The move upside is just a trap in my opinion and the black level I noted will be broken to get some tasty liquidity only to reverse back down.

I also left the interest rates table in the chart.
Trade fechado: objetivo atingido