EURUSD Strong Buy Signal on Weekly MACD with Trend Cycles
As indicated on the MACD, the MACD line has crossed over the signal line which is a "buy" signal. The MACD value is positive which corresponds to the 12ema being above the 26 ema and is considered bullish. The signal line "buy" signal happening in this bullish moving average crossover territory justifies the signal line crossover being interpreted as a "strong buy" signal as opposed to a regular "buy" signal. The "strong buy" signal is given by the green candle via the "MACD Hybrid BSH" indicator which is a visual aid for interpreting the MACD that I published last week and is available open source for anyone that wants to add it to their favorite indicators.
The durations of the 3 most recent cycles which have been isolated via parallel channels on the RSI as well as the price chart have been compared to the current cycle. There was a 90 bar cycle followed by a 72 bar followed by a 90 bar. Now we're at 40 something bars in the current cycle and I'm anticipating it will be 72 bars or longer. RSI is at 65 and has plenty of room to rise before being in overbought territory. The current price trend must continue in the upward direction in order to continue this current cycle.
A Fib retracement of 1.000 puts the price back at the previous peak which was 1.25560. This is the price target. A pullback of some sort is inevitable at this point and it is recommend to trim any long position. The expectation is to reach this target before May 24th as indicated by the target symbol.
The price has broken out of the long-term downtrend on the monthly chart over the past several months and this breakout on the weekly further solidifies that that breakout is an actual breakout on the monthly and not a dragged-out rejection. Not related to that point per se, higher lows are indicated with the uptrend line.
Lastly, as a clue as to when to exit this trade completely, it can be observed that during the sunset stage of the previous peak the MACD line had diverged from price around the same time it had crossed under the signal line. I would interpret both of these conditions being true at the same time again as bearish.
The durations of the 3 most recent cycles which have been isolated via parallel channels on the RSI as well as the price chart have been compared to the current cycle. There was a 90 bar cycle followed by a 72 bar followed by a 90 bar. Now we're at 40 something bars in the current cycle and I'm anticipating it will be 72 bars or longer. RSI is at 65 and has plenty of room to rise before being in overbought territory. The current price trend must continue in the upward direction in order to continue this current cycle.
A Fib retracement of 1.000 puts the price back at the previous peak which was 1.25560. This is the price target. A pullback of some sort is inevitable at this point and it is recommend to trim any long position. The expectation is to reach this target before May 24th as indicated by the target symbol.
The price has broken out of the long-term downtrend on the monthly chart over the past several months and this breakout on the weekly further solidifies that that breakout is an actual breakout on the monthly and not a dragged-out rejection. Not related to that point per se, higher lows are indicated with the uptrend line.
Lastly, as a clue as to when to exit this trade completely, it can be observed that during the sunset stage of the previous peak the MACD line had diverged from price around the same time it had crossed under the signal line. I would interpret both of these conditions being true at the same time again as bearish.
