Today i'm breaking down Ethereum. For about 2 months since the peak of 365 this year, ether has been constantly falling.
$365 resistance was actually held by the daily level stending way way back. And just like clockwork, the price fell level after level. It couldn't break back above $317 twice, therefore it naturally just fell.
The candle that broke $250 was very aggressive, so don't believe for a second that this wasn't just whale manipulation to secure more ETH before the next parabolic move up. Since $250 is a MAJOR support level, I drew a downtrend starting there.
As expected, ETH dropped all the way to the longterm uptrend and held it for a while. Price was just consolidating between both trends, almost forming a wedge. Again, just like clockwork, the whales manipulated the price to bring it lower. I marked all the manipulations to keep the price suppressed is in red arrows.
As of now, we finally broke out of the downtrend because of the recent big spike up in Bitcoins price. The 30MA (green) is also about to cross the 100MA (red), so that indicates price is going to move up. Its highly unlikely we're going to continue dropping in price, bc of Bitcoins recent moves.
This month of Sept., we should regain the uptrend, then test $250. ETH will be a late bloomer as compared to BTC, but don't lose faith. DevCon in October with the Istanbul upgrade, as well as ETH 2.0/Staking in the winter.
Price prediction by EOY is still $575, trade at your own risk.
Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see ETH make a new wave up, but I think you've jumped the gun on this a little bit. Of course, it could break out any moment, but 4H RSI is at a major resistance level and the price is NOT out of the downtrend yet. Until the RSI and price break out, it's still in a bearish trend. I believe the downtrend line you've drawn is incorrect. It's still in a large wedge: The ETH/BTC chart needs to break the downtrend as well.
sanneh
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@VictorCobra, You're using Logarithmic scale, he is using Linear scale, which is the right one to use since this short timeframe had exterme volatility and Log scale hides that. That's why you can't see the breakout from the downtrend in your chart.
@sanneh, Hmmm...even on the linear scale, you could argue that it hasn't broken out.
And it got rejected right at the resistance I drew on the log scale as well
Just saying this because his analysis ignores the possibility of testing the bottom of the wedge again (currently around $158), which is perfectly possible. Just saying that one should always explore different scenarios.
TradeIndicators
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We think it's going up as well. Our long position is up 1.34%