Fertilizer Industry As An Alternative S&P 500
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S&P 500 Technical Analysis
From a technical point of view, S&P 500 continues to move in wave 5 of diagonal A. Due to lower inflation in the US, there is a high probability that the Fed will slow down the rate hike and, as a result, investors will start buying assets with a higher level of risk. However, historically, after the Fed started to lower the interest rate, the price of the S&P 500 corrected by 30-50% before continuing its upward movement.
The fertilizer industry as an alternative to the S&P 500
The fertilizer industry continues to be one of the most attractive in the stock market. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, which led to massive disruption in global commodity markets, including fertilizers. Before this event, the balance between fertilizer consumption and supply was determined by two factors, namely production incentives and also price competitiveness. I estimate that in the coming quarters, the balance between supply and demand for one of the most important commodities will be determined by the ability of farmers to buy fertilizer that has become very expensive. The increase in the price of fertilizers led to a significant increase in the margins of companies such as Nutrien, The Mosaic Company, and CF Industries Holdings, traded on the New York Stock Exchange, and the subsequent increase in dividend payments.
Source: IFA, IFDC, market news sources
Several reasons led to a sharp rise in the price of potash, phosphorus, and nitrogen fertilizers. The first and main reason is the sanctions against two key producing countries, namely Russia and Belarus. According to an IFA study, Russia accounts for about 25% of the world's supply of nitrogen fertilizers needed to increase crop yields. In addition, the share of Belarus and Russia in the sales of potash fertilizers is about 41%, which puts these countries in the top 3 in terms of production volumes.
Source: IFA
Fertilizer prices continue to be significantly higher than in previous years. For example, the price of potassium chloride amounted to $562.5 per ton in the 3rd quarter of 2022, which is 161.9% more than in the 3rd quarter of 2021.
Source: Author's elaboration based on data from the World Bank Group
In addition, the military conflict in Eastern Europe continues to be in an active phase and, as a result sanctions from Russia and Belarus will not soon be withdrawn. As a result, I believe that fertilizer stocks are still attractive assets for long-term investors and can become an alternative to investing in companies from the S&P 500.
Disclosure: This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts of the assets described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental/technical criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
From a technical point of view, S&P 500 continues to move in wave 5 of diagonal A. Due to lower inflation in the US, there is a high probability that the Fed will slow down the rate hike and, as a result, investors will start buying assets with a higher level of risk. However, historically, after the Fed started to lower the interest rate, the price of the S&P 500 corrected by 30-50% before continuing its upward movement.
The fertilizer industry as an alternative to the S&P 500
The fertilizer industry continues to be one of the most attractive in the stock market. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, which led to massive disruption in global commodity markets, including fertilizers. Before this event, the balance between fertilizer consumption and supply was determined by two factors, namely production incentives and also price competitiveness. I estimate that in the coming quarters, the balance between supply and demand for one of the most important commodities will be determined by the ability of farmers to buy fertilizer that has become very expensive. The increase in the price of fertilizers led to a significant increase in the margins of companies such as Nutrien, The Mosaic Company, and CF Industries Holdings, traded on the New York Stock Exchange, and the subsequent increase in dividend payments.
Source: IFA, IFDC, market news sources
Several reasons led to a sharp rise in the price of potash, phosphorus, and nitrogen fertilizers. The first and main reason is the sanctions against two key producing countries, namely Russia and Belarus. According to an IFA study, Russia accounts for about 25% of the world's supply of nitrogen fertilizers needed to increase crop yields. In addition, the share of Belarus and Russia in the sales of potash fertilizers is about 41%, which puts these countries in the top 3 in terms of production volumes.
Source: IFA
Fertilizer prices continue to be significantly higher than in previous years. For example, the price of potassium chloride amounted to $562.5 per ton in the 3rd quarter of 2022, which is 161.9% more than in the 3rd quarter of 2021.
Source: Author's elaboration based on data from the World Bank Group
In addition, the military conflict in Eastern Europe continues to be in an active phase and, as a result sanctions from Russia and Belarus will not soon be withdrawn. As a result, I believe that fertilizer stocks are still attractive assets for long-term investors and can become an alternative to investing in companies from the S&P 500.
Disclosure: This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts of the assets described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental/technical criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
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