A decent setup I have seen in my trading has appeared in ES mini futures! Using a day bar chart, I am using my HL2MA and Fisher Transform Scripts looking for a confluence pattern. Notice on March 12th and April 1st of this year we had a failure for bears on the rising HL2MA, as price could not cross it. The very next Fisher Transform long signal is usually a great one to take. I bought the open of tonight's globex for yet another try at this setup. Also interesting, the turn of the Fisher Transform happened right at 0, or the mean. This is also the same place it turned in those 2 mentioned historic trades. We will see where it goes!
I have posted links here to the related TradingView Scripts that you can add to your favorites. Please note the Fisher Transform Performance Report is not accurate to how I would trade it. A. I am picky about which signals to take. B. Trailing stops are needed for shorts, and that PL graph fixes right up!
Obviously, that Alamo stop of 2998 lost. But, also the day before the FT turned red with a 3012.25 EOD closing price to take, some might have bailing in the low 3000's that day like me at 3003. A loss, but you cannot win them all. You can, however, follow your plan each and every time.
Thank you! What is your RR? Where do you set your SL and TP?
HammondB3
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@kiero, The MA provides the trailing stop, or you may exit with a red FT turn. Target should be around 3070 (quarterly expectation by Sept) or +52 pts, and stop is currently 2088 or -30pts and trailing increasing the R:R as it goes. I pound the quantitative analysis on platforms much more in depth than Tview. Longs do way better than shorts with this set up, and here are my findings for the last 5 years. 137 long trades using all setups I have with Fisher Transform: Payoff Ratio 3.7:1 with about a 48% win percentage. It must be noted that, of course, any long system should have done well in this bull market.