DXY Analysis: Market Awaits Core Durable Goods New Home Sales
The DXY fell heavily today to lows of 108.077 during the New York trading session. The 4 hour MACD signal has shown a bearish reversal but the question arises, will this hold? As mentioned the daily chart has also come into heavy resistance and has been near overbought recently. There will be a short trend soon on the daily chart it is possible that the trend is close, though if we do not get a heavy red daily candle today it may be delayed. A red close today would be strong for the bears. The main basket of currencies are waiting for the DXY to retrace as they are in an overbought or oversold state. The result of today's US New Home Sales data was bearish overall, from a previous and past data sentiment: New Home Sales (Jul) (Actual: 511K Forecast: 575K Previous: 585K).
Tomorrow US Core Durable Goods data will be released ((MoM) (Jul) Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.4%) and a bearish sentiment can bring further downwards pressure to the greenback. Pending Home Sales data will also be released ((MoM) (Jul) Forecast: -4.0% Previous.: -8.6%). It seems that the US real estate market has been doing poorly and banks and investors may try to capitalize on that by shorting the US dollar, though the report may surprise. The daily chart has shown strong bullish volatility rising high above the KC and BB also RSI had a value of 69 or 70 yesterday which suggested that the bullish trend is weakening. The daily MACD also shows divergence as we were near resistance yesterday, but the MACD has moved far closer to the 0 line axis versus last time when we were at this price level, this also can show signs of trend weakening. 8 and 12 hour charts can help in this situation as we wait for the daily chart to unfold, this is because the 4 hour chart has given us strong short signals, seeing what the 8 hour and 12 hour charts are portraying would aid us with information on how the daily chart may unfold soon. For example since the MACD has given us a bearish signal on the 4 hour, a bearish signal on the 8 hour would show a continuing bearish signal, and so on for the 12 hour chart. Monitoring these timeframes can help us understand if we will see the DXY short faster or whether it can be next week.
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Tomorrow US Core Durable Goods data will be released ((MoM) (Jul) Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.4%) and a bearish sentiment can bring further downwards pressure to the greenback. Pending Home Sales data will also be released ((MoM) (Jul) Forecast: -4.0% Previous.: -8.6%). It seems that the US real estate market has been doing poorly and banks and investors may try to capitalize on that by shorting the US dollar, though the report may surprise. The daily chart has shown strong bullish volatility rising high above the KC and BB also RSI had a value of 69 or 70 yesterday which suggested that the bullish trend is weakening. The daily MACD also shows divergence as we were near resistance yesterday, but the MACD has moved far closer to the 0 line axis versus last time when we were at this price level, this also can show signs of trend weakening. 8 and 12 hour charts can help in this situation as we wait for the daily chart to unfold, this is because the 4 hour chart has given us strong short signals, seeing what the 8 hour and 12 hour charts are portraying would aid us with information on how the daily chart may unfold soon. For example since the MACD has given us a bearish signal on the 4 hour, a bearish signal on the 8 hour would show a continuing bearish signal, and so on for the 12 hour chart. Monitoring these timeframes can help us understand if we will see the DXY short faster or whether it can be next week.
USD Currency Index The London session has just begun.
Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.