Decred is currently in a downtrend, made clear by the recent failure to breach and stay above the .065 BTC resistance line in early November 2018. We are currently completing the right shoulder shown in the chart down to the support zone of mid 2016 and early 2017 of 0.0030 BTC to 0.0036 BTC. That is my first target. From there on, I expect a reversal that should end at either the 0.0065 resistance or further at 0.00934 BTC (that is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement down from the top of 0.02 BTC) and is also a major historical resistance/support line. I will go far as to expect a pin bar with its body stopping at the downtrend line and its wick hitting the psychological 0.01 BTC line. Such a fine reversal candle will establish the top of the descending triangle. Then we need one more hit and reversal at its bottom, and we officially have a beautiful descending triangle with a 75% of breaking downwards. The triangle will now act as strong resistance and I see a strong combined resistance point at 0.065 BTC, the previously mentioned line, plus the .236 Finbonacci. Three factors that make it formidable resistance where I would place a short (if possible) expecting Decred to break the descending triangle all the way down to the target of .0005 BTC. I choose this target because it is the bottom of late 2016 and because the triangle is a 82% drop down from its top at 0.02 BTC, and should break down towards 82% further. I expect strong resistance at that point from which I would long Decred .
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I said before that we need a hit and reversal at the bottom of this triangle for it to count as a descending triangle. But we just broke through it. This shows that it's weaker than I anticipated, but also means that it could reverse before reaching my target of 50k Satoshi. Currently it is sitting at a reversal point at around 300k satoshi. To determine a stop loss on that long, you can use the .618 Fibonacci of the downtrend of Feb 2017. If it breaks that, then the next support is at 170k with another tricky stop loss to set. The next support is at 50k.
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I think the bearish momentum is getting exhausted and it's time for a bounce from around 140-160k satoshi all the way to around 300k satoshi. From there it should reverse and go lower towards 50k satoshi. Again this is a big gamble as there is no clear stop loss. It's like catching a falling knife. So trade it carefully with a small amount.
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Although we did not reach my target of 50k satoshi, I think we hit the bottom. I think the over head resistance is gonna be hard to break without another retest of 190k to 200k satoshi.
Trade fechado manualmente
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Either way, I'm out of this short because we hit the bottom in my opinion. So trade closed.
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We haven't reached the exact bottom target at 50k Satoshi, but I see RSI divergence on the weekly which is a sign of reversal.
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Comment: Decred hitting the same support line and giving a nice wick all the way down to 90k Satoshi. We also see RSI divergence. Is this the bottom in Decred or will we go down to 50k some day?
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And we're on our way down to 50k Satoshi, our initial target when we started this idea four years ago. It looks easily reachable from here.
@Grumlin, Volatility should remain low for a while after we reach 50k sats. I don't expect a sudden reversal. Even though Decred is an inspiring project, it should follow the typical behaviour of old altcoins that have gone out of trend. The price action is expected to stagnate for years while both price and volume continue to fall. Every now and then, you may get a spike in price, but the downtrend continues.
If a spike from 50k to the bottom of the triangle at 150k were to occur, it would not be out of the ordinary, nor a signal for recovery.
Ever since my initial analysis in Dec 2018, Decred has shown more weakness than I expected. So I expect that to continue.
I hope that answers your question.
overtaken
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any idea if dcr will ever break out? we have passed the 50k support and still dropping.
TechNerdOmar
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@overtaken, please read my other comments. I won't repeat myself. the short answer is no breakout is expected.
appface
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looks like its time to go hight from here
TechNerdOmar
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@appface, Please see my latest reply. I do not see a reason why it should go heigher from here. Also, higher by how much? As I said, a 3x spike is considered casual because we have seen this happen with countless altcoins that have gone stagnant for years. Decred is a great experimental project, but there is no reason for casual investors to invest in it. If you're an enthusiast and would like to support the current holders, that's a different story. The real value of this project lies in the developers that made it. Perhaps follow those developers and learn from their experience.