Been thinking long and hard about this picture, and i think this is the one.
i've been observing the price action these last two nights on the smaller time frames, and noticed that from our july 20th "bottom", there was a shift in momentum, a break of pattern - and a totally new vibe that's entered into this market space. hard for me to explain what i mean, but i'm sure you could see\feel it too. we haven't seen an impulse this clean in quite a long time, which leads me to believe that we are finally in Wave Y of this Wave B correction.
all of the fib relations check out for this flat idea, and i have a few potential targets for you guys.
• Wave Y = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave W • Wave Y can not pass 161.8% of wave W otherwise it will become considered a Wave 3 impulse.
If btc breaks above 43.1k on this run, then our Wave 4 correction is behind us, and we can expect to see new highs.
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Ps. I've never traded a flat correction before, in fact this is the first time I am seeing one this large with my own eyes. All of these relations are textbook accurate, so I'm going to simply treat these coming days as a learning experience, so I'll know what to expect if we ever come across this sort of structure again.
I appreciate all of your support, and I hope you guys trade safe in these crazy markets.
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i entertained this flat idea the other night, but the liquidity hunt the other day really threw me off.
which would put our wave C target ranging between 14~20k depending on where this wave b move tops out.
Something is going on in BTCUSD too, the down leg seems so weak, as if the market is just rushing to print a short fifth wave to make a wave count complete, and go north. I'll keep watching.
Eloquent
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@unbeldi, at first i thought we saw a truncated fifth in wave (a), but after some soul searching i realized that wave 5 hit the 100% extension perfectly
unbeldi
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@Eloquent, I have a wave count scenario on the shelf for the case that the current BTC leg is too weak to reach the bottom and take out the existing low as shown in my posts, but I wasn't going to speculate until price action warrants it. If there is indeed a bullish wind blowing for the moment, it could mean a leg up to retrace 62% of large diagonal to about 36k or 37k, before heading south for the final low.
@unbeldi, look what's in confluence with our trendline ;)
unbeldi
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@Eloquent, Not sure right now what the line is that touches the 4 wave label. Have a hard time with dark charts, btw. My eyes, probably.
Eloquent
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@unbeldi, it is the top of the bearish wedge from this entire lower area (perfectly in confluence with a 0.618 pullback on July 25th.
unbeldi
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@Eloquent, ok, the market is full of fib ratios. In fact it is made from them.
I am going to hang tight and review the situation. There is still a chance that this is the top (B/C) of wave iv of the larger diagonal of BTC, and that the A, B waves I assigned at the bottom were a 1-2. The top trend line can be raised without violation of anything, in fact that would bring it closer to specs of 66%. Let's see what the night brings.
unbeldi
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That last wave that broke the existing trend line looked rather nice though, like the impulses of the other day.