Swing Trade Buy on a signal (i.e. 15 minute RSI divergence, a double/triple bottom or a bounce) You are trying to buy about as low as possible, and trusting that BTC is so volatile that the price will go back up.
Always near the bottom 50 period BB for whatever time frame your trade is on.
A good buy signal is an RSI dip that appears to be forming resistance, stop loss is just under where you think the support is .
A 15 minute triple bottom happened this morning and started a 7% rally.
Sell signal was last night. The price has been going near 11700 and bouncing off, and there was a divergence signal on the 5 and 15 minute RSI.
TIPS: *Wait for a trade opportunity (a dip) that establishes support. Do not chase an uptrend. Buy very low and wait. The sell when the trend breaks down. Repeat. I recommend using at least 15 minute time trend to make intraday decisions. Do not just leave cash in BTC unless you're ok with huge price swings and "losing" a lot of money from day to day. This is a swing trade setup, not a hold-for-a-year or even a month setup. You can use this trade setup on the 4hr to successfully hold for weeks, though.
*Stop loss / alert on this style of trading is the swing low (red lines) . I use the alert because I trade often. If you want to set it and forget about it for days or weeks, use a stop loss instead but check it at least every day or two to see if your trend line (4hr purple lines, for example) have been broken. *I use an android app for alerts when price crosses my stop loss. *I also use alerts to set up a trade i.e. a cross from low above 30 RSI on the 15 minute RSI for when I've sold and am waiting for the dip to level out.
*If your stop loss goes off, abandon the trade and just try again on a bigger dip. *For BTC, a dip = an opportunity to buy lower once a new support level is established.
*Be sure to SELL when the trend breaks down. See the purple trend lines. Do not get stuck holding during a dip when you have no idea where the bottom is.
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Update: This is the 80 period bollinger band and moving average. Different securities may respect the 50 period BB and MA.
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Update: Current expectations. Buy chance at 11000? I am hoping for it.
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Update: We are in the 11000 area for USDT (lower for USD as USDT is inflationary in crypto space). I bought at 11300 because I ignored my system. Currently waiting at 11000 to see if the trend reverses or if the wedge breaks down to head to the bottom of BB80.
@dogalkozmatik, I trade the 15 with a longer term bias. I missed the buy signal for the 15 this morning so I am in cash. If you're looking to buy BTC, my best advice is to wait for a dip. Really, the waiting is the most excruciating part of this strategy.
JacobFranklin
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@dogalkozmatik, If you are currently holding, the long term trend is fine. If it were to drop below this black line it would be cause to sell and buy lower.
dogalkozmatik
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@JacobFranklin, YOUR WELCOME thank you very much I actually received 1.22 usd ripple for usd versus XRP if BTC rises BTC: 11,400USA so BTC is a significant value for me
dogalkozmatik
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@JacobFranklin, the reason is that when BTC rises, the XRP in the short wedge was worth 1.30USA and I actually proceeded with a strategy of selling it :)
@jamikr, Not really. I have been trading BTC but not very seriously since early December. I started looking at swing trading strategies in January and found some that appear to work. The purple trend lines before January are from back-testing this strategy on the 4hr. I usually trade now on the 15 minute but it has turned out to be pretty difficult just because I have to believe that my system works, and trust it and not myself. I.e. one of my entry signals is a positive cross on the lower 15 minute RSI. I have an alert set up to notify me when that happens. For some reason I ignored that signal this morning, so I'm sitting in cash. It worked beautifully yesterday, however, and put me in just before the rally.
JacobFranklin
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My bad, I use the 80 period BB and moving average for Bitcoin. 50 BB might work for other things, but the 80 works well for BTC because it is so volatile.
beachbumjoey
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Great detail and well planned out. So much easier to read too. Many thanks for sharing