Hello and welcome to my Ichimoku Bitcoin Analysis! In these last 2 weeks I have committed the great mistake of not paying attention to the 2 days timeframe. That tf is the one leading the path of Bitcoin so far, and it keep will doing it for around 2 more weeks. In my last post I said that around 9460 I will forget any bear idea and I will go heavy loaded in Bitcoin, and I did it, but after the drop, retest of the last high and a further drop, I just realised that another scenario could be happening, so I closed my position again. Almost every trader here was yelling ¨We have breakout!" a few days ago, but in fact if you draw the log line ignoring the wicks, you will get to the conclusion that we haven´t break the log line yet. It was fun to see how all the alts just stopped growing a few hours before Bitcoin went to his last high at 7030, know why? Simple, whales did sell off to load their shorts in Bitcoin, so it is a set up plan that will be repeating itself over and over again.
Why we just had that huge drop in a matter of an hour? We have touched an important 0.618 level and also the kumo is giving just today its first bear signal. All of us knew that a correction was coming sooner than later, so here we are, droping for aprox 2 more weeks.
Will this fall drag the alts? Most probably, so be ready to go heavy in the alts of your preference in the next bounce, because is gonna be mad.
My theory fails and we go back high? Then the price will start looking to retest the big resistance at 11766. I´ll protect my short position with a buy order at 9900.
Btw, today we had the first real breakout in the 5 min chart since 2 days ago!
Good luck!
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I expect the price boucing around the last high and 9110 for 2 more days, then big drop.
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Oh yeah, beautiful flag pole with a nice pennant with room for one more drop!
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The price respecting resistance at 15 min timeframe and there we go!
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This is a gorgeous shooting star candle in the 1 hour chart.
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Ok we are officially in a trend reversal far rather than a simple correction. I guess I may be the only one in TA who guessed the trend changed.
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We have made a nice 1 hour kumo breakout!
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Take care guys when buying the dip. We are far from being done, and in the current situation, just experienced scalper can get money from this market.
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Many ¨traders¨ here calling this fall a whale manipulation...very easy to blame the whales when their TA fails. This is pure TA action, nothing else.
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Fast your seat belt, tomorrow´s candle is coming hot!!
Nice chart. So I have a key level of 8000. If this down wave ends above that, it confirms this is wave 2 of an impulse up. If it breaks it, it is likely a triangle wave and we head to 6700 (or lower with a wave E extension). For the time being I see this wave going to 8500, maybe a bounce up and then another drop to somewhere between 8000 to 8200. Then another correction (either start of wave 3 impulse, or a minor ABC correction that continues the wave E to 6700 territory). So a short term long at 8000 to 8200, and then wait for a reversal to sell.
Coinamic
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@MAGICMARK, you are right. My level is 8100, I expect a bigger bounce up to 8500 and a big sell off again. My take is that the wave E will continue to 6700-6800. Another big bounce around 1k up and retest of the neck line. At that time we need to be alert, a drop below 6500 may drag the price to 5800 and lower. If we reverse the trend at the neckline and we go to the log line, then we can be sure that the bear session has ended.
MAGICMARK
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@babyjungle, thanks for that. Wow, you are more bearish than I am. There are two scenarios I'm looking now. This is either an ABC correction down that will stop around 8000 to 8500 (and we are forming wave C now), this would mean we are in wave 2 of the grand impulse up (which is the blue line on my chart). Or we are in wave 3 of an impulse that will take us to around 6500 to 7500 - this impulse would be WAVE E on the grand scale (which is the red line on my chart).
Coinamic
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@MAGICMARK, well my concern now is:
1. whether to enter at 6600 and get a 1k bounce, back to 6600 and see if The resistance is strong enough.
2. Wait at 5800 and see if the price hold the downtrend
3. Wait at 4400 and see if how the market reacts.
I feel that a dark future is coming to bitcoin in the medium term. Some whales may want to buy extremely cheap, difficult times for us: Honestly I prefer the easy way, buy cheap as I did the last year and just sit on top of your coins but seems that maybe those days are over for now.
MAGICMARK
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@babyjungle, some are saying a bounce here to double top 9,7k (maybe a little higher), and then down in a major wave to 6k or lower. So many possibilities. If indeed this is a small ABC correction that is soon over, getting in now on some alts to ride to 10k may be very profitable. It would be painful to miss something like that. Have you completely written off a bounce from here, or is it still being considered?
Coinamic
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@MAGICMARK, I’m expecting a bounce and just a possible retest of 9700, but it is just not happening today or tomorrow, but maybe 29-30 of this month. Depends on how deep we fall. And yes, if this is just a small correction, 8k is great for an entry. I’ll update at that level and see how everything looks.
MAGICMARK
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@babyjungle, thank you. I'm still seeing a possible bounce at 8.5k (fib), 8.2k (support and top of all time high trend line on log scale). 8k pyschological limit now, unless it comes tomorrow late and then all time high trend will hit that level too. 8100 happens to be 50% fib retracement, but this is known to be weak support. I think with CNE future expiring on Friday, tomorrow they will take advantage of the fear in the market now and push it down harder. It is tough to be patient, and resist going long, but really, we have no verification yet of a rebound, so we know to have a reasonable chance to make profit we need clear signs and to protect with stop losses.
Coinamic
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@MAGICMARK, sure thing, maybe you are right, the big dump that I´m expecting is for tomorrow/friday. It may be that tomorrow we could bounce from 8.5k to 9700 again. Remember that the last time the price bounced from 6430 to 7497 which is the 0.382 fibo. 8.5k is the same level, it could be why not. And if that happens, the huge drop that I´m expecting will be a gigantic red candle from 9700 back to 8500 again in just one day, and that drop could happen during just 1 day on friday. Ok is making sense now :)
Coinamic
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@babyjungle, ok I just checked again my charts. I won´t enter tomorrow or friday. If the bounce take place on saturday, then I will, but not before. Until friday I´m expecting more drops. If I loose it, then we will see more entries again soon.
MAGICMARK
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@babyjungle, the CME allows last trade at 4 pm London time (UTC + 1h) on last day of trading (Friday, April 27th). After that it generally goes quiet. So really we have almost exactly 24h left. I do not think we can go up to 9.7k and back down to 8.5k or less in that time frame. It's not impossible, but that would be some very wild action I haven't see in a wild. Right now, many believe that BTC will go down. BTC longs/shorts ratio is still above 1.4 (which means many people still holding onto long positions, probably entered in when we broke the all time high trend line). In fact the longs ratio increased yesterday even from 1.2 to 1.45! I think this is super risky, but anyhow, my point is, a short from here is still attractive for wall street. The clock is ticking, and they know it, so they will go with the flow in my opinion. Drop it down as much as possible in wave C over the next 24h and then we should be really looking carefully for the buy signal.