Hello traders, Weekly time-frame will be a the main point of reference for this analysis, as it paints the bigger picture of the market. After breaking the 3000-4000 region which was a zone of accumulation, BTC price had a bullish rally all the way to 9000 region with not a single bearish candle on the bigger time-frames such as the weekly, which gave me the impression that the bullish momentum could not sustain for much longer and that a correction of around 30%-40% was inevitable, this however was covered in depth on prior analysis so if you haven't read it yet I'd suggest you to go back and do it.
Although I thought that the catalyst of this correction would be the 9200-9600 levels it seems like it can happen earlier. Last weeks candle closed as a DOJI candlestick, showing a clear indecision between bulls and bears and a potential of bears to take over. This weeks candle fell as low as 7500, and there's a key level to take into consideration, that of 7788 which confluences with the spike of the previous shooting star which took us to the 3000 region. Should this weeks candle CLOSE below this level (anywhere between the grey rectangle) would confirm a bearish bias, and the 6000 region would be a real possibility.
Here is another weekly perspective. Although I do believe this week will finish red, I don't believe we will go much lower if lower at all. This pause in the bullish action was inevitable. Most Bears were caught sleeping back in April when I called the bottom still swearing we would go lower. Now some 100+ percent later they are still crying we must go lower. Yes, we needed to pull back a bit for two reason. 1. To reach back and reconfirm the long term weekly trend line before going higher and 2. To let all the naysayers have one more chance to jump aboard before this ship sails for open sea. And still, I'm sure many will get left behind because they have no LONG TERM perspective on where all this is heading. As you can see in my chart below, my reasoning makes sense and is confirmed by the technicals that have already been established on the weekly chart.
UnknownUnicorn3394555
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@Kwa, as much as your TA does make sense, i still however believe that IF this weeks candle closes below the support area- anywhere between 7788 and 7440 would result for the price to touch 6000 again as there’s not much support below this area. We had a 30% pullback in 2017 before the bull run took place. Even if you’re right and the bull run is underway from now, a simlar percentage of correction before could take place and a 30% correction even from the current price or from 10k would take us where ? Do the math.
BitcoinBearSlayer
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@amfeix, I did the math and determined that buying again below 4K was better than buying above 5K and buying below 6K was better than buying above 9K and buying below 7K was better than buying above 12K etc. I'm done buying. I've been buying since $185. My position is established. When the price rises to 5 or 6 figures dickering over a couple hundred dollars, or even a couple thousand dollars, will seem stupid. I'm a hodler. I only sell when I need a new car or something. Personally, I just don't think we see a 30%-40% pullback right now. Later, perhaps. Right now I just think it's too soon for the reasons stated above. But, that's what makes a market - Different opinions on price at any given time. Good luck, I hope you hit your targets or at least get close.