Okay everyone, just logging in again and looking for the first time now from the office again. So still a lot more for me to watch before being able to get a good view on things. But for now, seems that Bitcoin has continued that parabolic move i showed a the past week. In my previous analysis i showed BTC and ETH chart, showing a few options. Where ETH eventually changed the H&S into a bullish wedge and where Bitcoin never broke it's neckline even. Seems there was simply not enough selling pressure to break the important support levels. Because of this, from now on i am assuming that the difference between a mid-term bull and bear trend is around 7500 for BTC and 230ish for ETH.
Moves like these parabolic moves, from my experience, there is no logic to be found. Was just as the rally from 5700/6300 to the 8K's the first time. It's either retail money buying like crazy or the whales forcing it up (well, it has the same effect so doesnt really matter at this point).
Alts are still not believing all of this, so no confirmation from that side, but that isn't the first time though. From paste experience (this year and 2018), alts want to see a more solid consolidation first for a few days before those start to rally again. So it can still happen, like we had at the 7800/8300 around half of May.
Now short term, we had quite some profit taking earlier today with that big volume drop a few hours ago. At the moment it's either making a bear flag (on the right) or just finding support again from the parabolic line. There is not much room left anymore from that curved line. So a big correction is getting near. But it could even reach the 10k level before doing that. On the left we can see there is still room when drawing that resistance line from the highs of the past 2 months. That's why i am assuming that the 9800/10200 zone is probably the max for this parabolic movement.
When comparing that one to the 5000/6000, we can see we had some rejection there as well. But, as we can clearly see, instead of a big rejection, bulls held their ground and eventually pushed it back up again creating an even bigger rally.
So the only sensible thing for me to go on for now are the follow:
-) Watching the parabolic move (blue curved line). It's no exact science though, but think for now we can say it's support is around 9000. Also think, the next import support level is around 8600ish. -) The small bear flag we are moving inside of, also something to keep to watch for the coming hours.
An important note about this parabolic move. If the line breaks, it doesn't mean it will dump immediately (it happens more often like that though than not dumping), but there is room for some sideways action. But when it starts to take too much time, like we had at the yellow circle at 6000, than we can start to assume that bulls are still in full control.
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Previous analysis:
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Message i posted in my channels past week:
Well, still the same unclear movement. Just so many signs telling me this move up has been completely fake (meaning just luring in short with a small drop and out of nowhere some whales push it up and we get a short squeeze).
So mostly just shorts buying it up instead of really bullish buying. Past days OI even dropped a lot which confirms that, but today it increased quite a bit. So making it even more confusing to me.
That parabolic move has been playing out so far (i knew it could bounce up one more time, where it usually does with a shape like this, but i honestly didn't expect it this time because of the reasons mentioned above). I do however think the pattern is real, so it's probably just assuming it will go up, until that support line breaks. Could happen in 5 min, could happen at 8500ish after 24 hours or so. Only a big rally straight to 8600+ could invalidate it.
A break of this line doesn't mean a big crash to below 7500 will happen, but usually does mean a significant drop should happen. We have a few more of these past month or so.
I also changed the channel on the left btw
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Starting to become a similar move as a few weeks ago, since it's again just not dropping. Also saw a bull trap there. So the key level now is around 9350/9400. There were bears waiting there to dump it earlier. So either they will get in again there, or the way to 10k might be clear from resistance for the bulls.
So this is at least something to keep an eye on
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Now we could be entering an important stage, because if this red resistance breaks, it could mean the parabolic move is still in full play.
If we see some resistance and see several small attempts fail , than it could become a lower high and the start of the break of that curved line (the parabolic move)
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The fractal has played out almost perfectly, from the looks of it, already finished as well. So i think the fractal is already over so best to judge things on their own from now on.
Small inverse H&S from the low with a target around 9050. The 9000/9100 is a big resistance zone now. This can still keep the bears in control if it doesn't break. So for the bull to continue up again, it needs to break. Also when looking at the daily candle, it's a big bearish sign if the price closes below the 8900.
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So the parabolic line broke and we had a 500 point drop. Nothing special so far though, volume also not huge and also not a violent drop. So anything can still happen.
As mentioned above, the 9000/9100 is a big zone for the bulls now. The second level is around 9250. A retrace up to that level, could still be considered as a retest of the former curved support line.
But still, as i have mentioned the past 2/3 months, volume is the key factor before we can really consider that this bull trend is over. There have been several attempts, but non of them exceeded the buying volume yet on the daily.
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At the low yesterday i did not really think it will continue it on the way up as well, since fractals usually only play out parts of it. So not the wave up and down, but seems the market is doing it though. Could be because of the extreme bullishness again that it plays out together with the volume maybe.
Anyway, regardless, broke several resistances now. Reached the 9050 target of that small inverse H&S, got rejected a few times from the 9250ish but broke this level 15m ago. At this point, banging the door of what should be a last resistance around 9400.
A few weeks ago, it broke up as well (the fractal) but then we saw a big Bart move down happening. It would be a bit odd to see the exact same thing happen though, since the cycle is actually over it seems
Going to post this fractal here, making it easier to follow it your self. At the low yesterday i did not really think it will continue it on the way up as well, since fractals usually only play out parts of it. So not the wave up and down, but seems the market is doing it though. Could be because of the extreme bullishness again that it plays out together with the volume maybe.
9200/50 should be a support of the bulls, should normally not break anymore. 9140/60 could also be another one to keep this move up from the low alive. Meaning to prevent a bigger consolidation (in time) or another bigger drop
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I drew the resistance around 9250, what should have been a max retest of the parabolic move. Now we clearly just broke it. I also drew those lines on the right as well. During normal market movement, this clearly means the bearish patterns are invalidated already. However, i remember from the first half year of 2018, that sometimes the retests got even higher than previous highs and then still dropping again.
I made an educational post about back then, will try to find it and show it again. But in short it meant, that because the market is in extreme bull mode, the retests get exaggerated before a drop happens.
Anyway, for now, as long as it stays above the 9250ish, the bulls are in full control!
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Ping pong game between bulls and bears continues. Bulls seem very strong, buying up almost every dip, but the bears keep kicking them out and slamming the door shot now at 9400.
I see 2 options now, that is the option of a triangle. This one is still quite likely, because the last high was slightly higher than the previous one. Normally when the lows get lower, it like a sign that bears getting in sooner. Second option is the triangle attempt fails and we have a double top on our hands now. Only a big break of 8800/8900 would trigger this and the target around 8200/8400.
On the right we see to have something to follow now. If that trend line breaks again, it would mean that bulls are taking over again on the short term. A break of the red zone (9250/80), would put the bulls in favor again.
Usually with shapes like this, when the resistance gets touched for a third time, it tends to break. So if we see it move up again to the 9400/40, it will break eventually.
If you draw the FIBB from ATH to the bottom at 3K, we reached exactly 0.382 retracement at 9.4K, the volume is very low, on Coinbase BTCEUR there was a 400 EUR price gap compared to other exchanges, huge divergences. I really do think that the major correction is just gonna happen now at least to 7k. Other bearish sign is that CME BTC FUTURES closed at 8.4K so tomorrow there will be a huge gap, and based on history on BTC chart all gapes gets filled. What do you think?
elpokor
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@KryptonuQ, the moving average volume for CME BTC1! peaked at about 12k contracts (5BTC per contract). That's about 60k BTC average volume in 20 days of parabolic growth, Bitmex alone moves nearly 10 times that volume daily, arguably washtrading but whatever... If you add up all the volume from "serious" spot exchanges the volume is way higher too. Point being, I'm pretty sure that CME is a drop in the bucket in the overall BTC market, but feel free to correct this argument if you have any information pointing otherwise.
Also, there's an unfilled gap from about $3550 to $3600. If we're about to fill the CME gaps, there's probably plenty of time to sell and not a measly correction to 7k, I'm afraid :D
KryptonuQ
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@elpokor, Good points. I mean there are unfilled gaps, but there are far more filled gapes than unfilled ones, so the probability is higher to fill than not to fill. Anyway what is your short term price target?
elpokor
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@KryptonuQ, absolutely, I observed the BTC1! chart for months... until that gap never got filled :P . The rest of the weekend gaps have all been filled, every single one; so that gap could be the exception confirming the rule... I don't know for sure, I only wanted to point out that I did follow the chart too until february, but usually doing regular analysis on the 24/7 charts can point in the same direction that looking the CME chart.
My personal price target? given that bulls finally managed to break every single divergence in RSI from hourly charts to weekly... I'm expecting the weekly RSI to move up towards the 78-79 area again but finally diverge (monthly chart too, probably when June candle closes). What price will it reach during the final excess of the trend? well, probably nobody knows. I expect a bullish range on BTC rather than parabolic growth, given how altcoins/BTC arbitrage charts look. I'll sell (or rather take profits) eyes-closed if price touches 11.5k because it's the 50% retracement of the bear market, and a relevant level according to my analysis. I'll short if it goes to 13.5k, the 61.8% retracement of the bear. Yeah, I know it sounds overly bullish but whatever... Plenty of people will see it "overly bearish and conservative targets" if it breaks 10k after forming a 3k pole bull flag. Time will tell!
danieltberridge
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@KryptonuQ, Looks like a conservative 90% gaps are filled from my own observation on the 4hr. With this in mind, what do you feel about the gap from 19th May down to 7187, as yet unfilled on the 4hr?
KryptonuQ
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@danieltberridge, Yes I noticed that gap, and I think we gonna fill it. I do think this "correction" that happened was not the real one. We are going to see a 30-35% correction in my opinion. Even if we hit 10k that would still bring us at least down to 7k or slightly lower. I see all the youtubers talking about potential 12k, 13k, which shows me that the greed just makes them blind. A correction is very imminent. And the price we hit around at 9.4k is the 0.382 fib retracement from All time high to the lows at 3k, which could indicate the turning point in the coming days.
Trader4ever
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It will climb to $10,646
DeadCatCapital
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I have the same analysis, thanks botje, and on a fundamental tip, corn is wrecked, the late planting in the midwest is getting washed out, and mold and root rot will bring yields way way down, long corn