If you are searching for a new Bitcoin bubble look here:
The bad news is that there isn't a new bubble.
The good news is that you can look at any movement that can produce a new bubble, how ?
The people that are doing the bitcoin markets are:
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1. Miners, they normally sell bitcoin after production immediately.
2. Private customer , they buy small quantity of bitcoins to spend after some time for goods or services.
3. Private Holders, they buy bitcoin as a investment and hold.
4. Investors, they buy bitcoin to hold or as liquidity.
5. Commercial seller of goods, they sell bitcoin received from customers immediately.
6. Others... they buy and sell inside a range of time.. (speculators ,ecc.)
Look at the graph:
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Red line is the "Network Deficit", every time it move down, bitcoin move up, at the new minimum, it do the maximum of the bubble value, there is also the max activity cost in that moment.
Orange line is the miners's revenue, if a miner is mining, this means they have a revenue otherwise they can switch off the mining action, if they switch off mining the hash rate decrease.
Blue line is the Hash Rate, how much the miners are mining, if it fall the miners are switching off the mine machines.
We are at the 3° generation of mining (called "Asic" mining), after FPGA/GPU mining (2° generation) and CPU mining(first generation). After asic generation there isn't new generations, but like PC, they can optimize the process (reduce cost and decrease nm production of chips or do it in parallel), so it's very difficult to say when this optimizations can have a end..
Finally, violet is the transaction cost, it increase during the maximum activity...
So, where we are ? We are NEUTRAL, i think. There is Nothing evident... all the bitcoin bought are selled, acitivity is low..
What we need to look at ?
"Network deficit" is the better line to look at, new bottoms can start the bubble.. as alternative we need a strong buy.. from who ?
Statistics are taked from blockchain directly inside tradingview... :-)
~beller
The bad news is that there isn't a new bubble.
The good news is that you can look at any movement that can produce a new bubble, how ?
The people that are doing the bitcoin markets are:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Miners, they normally sell bitcoin after production immediately.
2. Private customer , they buy small quantity of bitcoins to spend after some time for goods or services.
3. Private Holders, they buy bitcoin as a investment and hold.
4. Investors, they buy bitcoin to hold or as liquidity.
5. Commercial seller of goods, they sell bitcoin received from customers immediately.
6. Others... they buy and sell inside a range of time.. (speculators ,ecc.)
Look at the graph:
-----------------------------------------------------------
Red line is the "Network Deficit", every time it move down, bitcoin move up, at the new minimum, it do the maximum of the bubble value, there is also the max activity cost in that moment.
Orange line is the miners's revenue, if a miner is mining, this means they have a revenue otherwise they can switch off the mining action, if they switch off mining the hash rate decrease.
Blue line is the Hash Rate, how much the miners are mining, if it fall the miners are switching off the mine machines.
We are at the 3° generation of mining (called "Asic" mining), after FPGA/GPU mining (2° generation) and CPU mining(first generation). After asic generation there isn't new generations, but like PC, they can optimize the process (reduce cost and decrease nm production of chips or do it in parallel), so it's very difficult to say when this optimizations can have a end..
Finally, violet is the transaction cost, it increase during the maximum activity...
So, where we are ? We are NEUTRAL, i think. There is Nothing evident... all the bitcoin bought are selled, acitivity is low..
What we need to look at ?
"Network deficit" is the better line to look at, new bottoms can start the bubble.. as alternative we need a strong buy.. from who ?
Statistics are taked from blockchain directly inside tradingview... :-)
~beller
