I was hoping to get this out yesterday but meh. This is a sisterpost because the trend lines from yesterday remain unchanged and we are just changing the indicators and the text on the main post.
A lot is on the main chart for you to ponder but for those who don't know what is going on, let me do a brief introduction to the Ichi-Moku clouds as I use them. For simplification I have removed the tenken and kijun lines so we can just focus on the clouds themselves and not look for any T-K crosses or the like. The standard cloud was created for equities trading on the normal 5 days a week, 4 trading weeks a month and 52 weeks a year and the crypto settings were adapted to 24 hour trading and these settings have been popularized by a whole slew of idea posters on Tradingview and Youtube, but there are some tweaks that people will apply here and there.
I use the standard colors of green and red for the traditional settings and after some tinkering have adopted the convention of yellow and orange for the crypto cloud. This alows me to use mostly blue, purple and black for charting my trendlines and most people can see what is going on visually. Having both cloud really helps see how the trend is really doing because it helps you compare current price action to its previous behavior and gives you ideas where price action has moved to fast or where it has clearly moved sideway.
You can see that sideways action very clearly with the lagging span, but most people don't use it. It does become helpful because as we can see in the chart below the laging span does also show us when price action has moved sideways and when the lagging span starts to overlap the price action things can get grizzly
The fact that both clouds have twisted bearish is a major warning to buyers and holders of what is most likely coming. The similarities between the trendlines is also concerning. Based on the trendlines top 3 would seem to most resemble top two but be cannot count on that being the case. I am not going to replicate it here, but a lot of good TA shows that it would be a very technical retest and a power move for BTC to find support between top 1 and top 2. The most significant horizontal level for bitcoin is around 12.3k.
A zoom in shows roughly how I think the price roughly will act.
Of course, if we see price action get above the blue trend line on the daily time frame and start closing whole bodies above and even testing it as support on this relief rally, or if we see it getting above the purple trend line with whole candle bodies my bias will flip. But in the face of persistent selling as evidenced by the On Balance Volume being under the 100 EMA and the technical resistance in the chart that doesn't seem likely.
Here even more technical resistance for y'all to ponder and maybe do your own ideas on. The EMA ribbon on the Weekly timeframe and the 3 day all look painfully similar. There are some serious indications that Top 3 will proceed with a lot more downside. Sure, there will be a lot of thrash and relief rallies and a lot of money to be made by swing trading up and down but these are dangerous times.
I thought I had posted the Ketner Channels in other recent posts but I can't find it. These are something I played with when I started trading but very recently got back to using them when I started going trough a wider selection of YouTubers to see who had been more consistent on calling a top and saw Crypto Kirby doing a great job. He primarily uses them on the daily but they can be very helpful on the weekly and monthly. If we are in a top 2 type scenario then we could expect the top of the weekly KC to be resistance. A major buy signal will be when the price action goes out the bottom of the monthly. This is a bit higher than the 12.3k target mentioned earlier.
If you are looking for a good tradingview or youtube content creator my recommendation is you make sure you have ones that justify how they determine their major bias in trend. You don't always have to agree but if they don't have a big picture they will be gobstopped by big moves against them. I hopefully will not be gobstopped if I am wrong. I have a long on an alt that I favor that is doing well with TA that looks much like this chart. If the price action beats my trendlines and overcomes the technical resistance I see I just let my winners run.
As in the sister post this is tagged neutral because I am predicting first an up , and then a down. Since it is both a buy and a sell in the same post it is thus tagged.
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Price has come out of the triangle a lot of people were charting and has so far apparently tested the whole structure as support. Very promising for the validity of my relief rally prediction.
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We are at the beginning of a new week. To the left we see the daily bitcoin price, with triangle, Double Ichi-Moku clouds and the on balance volume. My bias is still very strongly that we will see a move out of this triangle to the upside. The OBV is moving roughly sideways and the 10 looks like it is starting to curl up and may cross the 20 shortly. Watching the volume action over the next couple of days will be important. The dotted line you see is the height of the triangle and as it does't get us to the trendlines I would suspect over-performance on the Hight of the triangle. Perhaps in some rising wedge formation.
On the right panel we see the weekly Keltner channel. I still expect the top of the channel to be stiff resistance going forward.
I still see youtuber and trading view content creators all over the place when it comes to their forecasting. Emotions are still high and there is a lot of uncertainty.
Here is the 2 Day chart to show the NVT by aamonkey and with the weekly bollinger band. The target of the triangle will have price action dying around the 20 week SMA (the baseline of the BB). I expect a lot of thrashing about from the price action and convulsions from content creators. I remain certain this is a bull trap, and one that will be rather difficult to trade.
The trendlines on the main post are the trendlines that price will need to get above and hold for my bias to change.
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oops, here is the NVT chart with BB.
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BTC is up 9% right now and the two day chart is about to have a MACD cross. Key thing to watch will be the MACD and its behavior around the zero level. And of course our downward sloping trendline is the trendline for the bulls to beat and they will need to beat it with volume on the weekly chart.
We've featured your research in Editors' Picks. Thanks for taking the time to share your work and thorough analysis.
This_Guhy
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@TradingView, Many thanks. I just want to let you know that I think promoting chart art and not quality TA or FA will lead to this sites destruction.
AdrianZen
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@This_Guhy, for an obvious reason people often give likes to charts which simply confirm their bias instead of providing new insights. Another thing is that a good percentage of people in the crypto scene are new traders who probably don't even know what shorting is. TradingView is probably one of the best written (code-wise) pages on the entire internet providing amazing tools for its users but knowing good from bad charts - that's mostly going to be like knowing Mozart from Britney. Then again I can name at least one user who can draw Cartoons in his charts but makes good analyses, too ;).
I really don't mean to be party pooper, and I know in todays world it's not "cool" to give constructive criticism since everyone seems to be wanting to do their "thing".
But rules are rules and they must be obeyed. Like the TradingView house rules on turtorials and analysis:
Those clearly state that each should be marked in the relevant field.
Now since I find this post starting as an explanation for the "Ichi-Moku cloud" and even after reading more of it showing "structural weakness" in terms of depth and predictability,
I must wonder whether Trading View is following their own rules/ whether whoever is behind this account donating coins is actually aware of those rules and whether they
are also giving these kind of donations to others that have posted real in depth analysis that does not conclude with:
"As in the sister post this is tagged neutral because I am predicting first an up , and then a down. Since it is both a buy and a sell in the same post it is thus tagged."
Looking at the graph the "prediction" proved to be inaccurate. Now I truly don't care, I just believe that it's dangerous for an administrator to give rewards to people clearly not respecting their own
house rules just because the analysis has their logo featured on their chart.
Think about it.
It's an ok analysis, but incorrect after the first day. I've seen a couple really good ones today, one that even had me adapt my own thoughts.
I any case, no true thorough analysis should start with "meh" - Convince yourself with bitcoin analysis that was released only today.
Sincerely,
C44
This_Guhy
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@Coinilicious44, Most people don't use the Cloud, or two of them, so I explained why I use two as a double confirmation of overall bearishness. I cant tag a post as both TA and education so I went with the main theme, of making a call: price will rally to a trendline and get rejected. if that call is wrong in that we don't get a rally or we beat the blue trend line then my idea is negated. But this wasn't a predominately education post.
Coinilicious44
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@This_Guhy,
Okay okay, I was merely wondering since I saw that a couple days ago when I was writing myself.
I remember it stating that it should be tagged seperately and be clearly distinguishable, yep just checked:
When you click on publish you get a little window saying:
"Remember there is a difference between market analysis and turtorials. The first should include analysis and
predictions. The latter should contain educational material only. "
Makes sense, you want to protect people of scammers and wannabe trading gurus who are trying to gather clueless followers with unprecise analysis and wishy washy bla bla
so they can make a risk free extra cause the were right on bitcoin once and think they hit big. [not saying this is the case with you, just thought that this could be the purpose
behind the seperation.]
I was merely reffering to this:
"A zoom in shows roughly how I think the price roughly will act."
You were suggesting an immediate breakout of an almost symmetrical pennant upwards followed by a continuation of the overall downtrend.
In my opinion your prediction was rejected immediatly since the move up hit diagonal resistance.
Yet trading view chose to reward you with 200 coins for everyone to see on the basis of what?
Just imagine, since trading view is all community driven, you were to be the moderator and this_Guhy at the same time... [again not saying this is the case]
I just believe the host of a webpage should behave neutral and not judge whether an analysis is good or bad, but allow the community to do that via a "like" button.
And no offense to your efforts, I learned more from you reply than from you analysis.
There simply is more thorough out there that is not being featured in "editor"s choice and I think this could be a little dangerous since you just don't know the purpose behind
somebodies action - yet you take somebodies side as the host.
Hope this makes sense!
All the best :)
stevelaz
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Don’t think this was the top. Based on history it would not be. Time will tell.
AdrianZen
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@stevelaz, check out the reply to matiasmatias1's post below. Don't fall into a trap thinking that things always repeat the same pattern. This_Guhy did an amazing job here analyzing actual data. Keep your mind and eyes open :).
YellowRaincoat
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@AdrianZieniewicz, "Don't fall into a trap thinking that things always repeat the same pattern" He then proceeds to use the same cross pattern for identifying the market top. You see this contradiction right?