1) The 6k support that Bitcoin had stood on for months was broken a week ago.
2) As stated in my last idea, the last few times BTC broke below the 6k support, it didn't stay there for a very long time. The first 6k break only happened on a couple exchanges like GDAX, and BTC was only under it for a hour or so. Later breaks were on much lower volume and were near the end of a downtrend with bullish divergence on indicators. This is the longest period of time we've spent below 6k this year, as previous breaks only had wicks below 6k on the daily or the next candle closed above 6k.
3) The bulls didn't even manage a retest of the former 6k support to confirm it as new resistance.
4) Today, the diagonal "support" formed from the Feb low and the Jun low was broken - the last stand of the bulls.
5) The break of the diagonal diagonal "support" invalidates the "falling wedge" theory some bulls were pushing.
6) The bearish descending triangle breakdown idea is now what the crowd will be following, likely causing the price to dip further in a self-fulfilling prophecy.
7) We didn't spend much time in the 5k area before entering the 4k range.
8) The volume of the this dump was higher than the volume of the first dump on the three exchanges I checked (BitMEX, Bitfinex, Coinbase). Volume confirms price trends.
9) If you believe in Elliott Wave Theory, the current dump is the 3rd wave of the current downtrend. The 3rd wave is when the trend is confirmed beyond any doubt.
10) When price breaks below support or resistance, volatility drastically increases as traders have no price points that they would expect to provide support. This can be seen by the huge high volume dumps after both supports were broken.
11) There isn't any support below us besides the psychological round number milestones of 4k, 3k, etc and some arbitrary diagonal trendlines from years ago.
12) Funding rate is still in favor of bears on BitMEX.
13) Bulls are very weak right now. Bullish events like the FUD that triggered the early September fall being proven false and the entry of Bakkt/Fidelity into the crypto scene eliciting no positive response in the price from bulls revealed their weakness and lack of ability to pump the price even with the news on their side.
Comentário
⋅
We've found temporary support at ~4.2-4.4k, which was about the 1.61 fib extension of the first wave down. Some notable bears on BitMEX have also closed part of their position.
Let's face it: as no widespread use case has been found and adapted by the masses, the whole cryptos scene is just a playground for speculators (like even me). But it is no ways sustainable. Unless for some reason some real demand arises, or the speculators with bigger capitals do not decide so, there won't be any signficant rise in price. One possible support could be however, the mining costs, but those are variable.
Ecopurge
⋅
im just tryping in the box for fun, becuse I can't figure out how to get 20 rep to use it
Ecopurge
⋅
@Ecopurge, Oh it worked this time lol. In that case, Look left. Line up the bottoms and trend lines. We close to the bottom or were already there. $4200 is the equiv of the $200 of 2015 imo
Sayori
⋅
@Ecopurge, You probably automatically unlock the ability to comment after your account passes a certain age.
Anyway, arbitrary diagonal trendlines aren't nearly as significant as horizontal areas of support, especially during a bear market. That's because "6k" was a commonly agreed upon support line for traders for most of this year (and thus had many buys placed there), while diagonal trendlines vary in how they can be drawn and consequently are much harder for traders to agree on, especially when the bottoms for the old trendline are years old.
Ecopurge
⋅
@Sayori. It's not rock solid but historically the price hasn't gone too far out of range. The current price is pretty solid horizontal support. However saying it is dead inst accurate. Were coming down from a high of 20K that was a result of a climb from a low of $150. Imo the only way bitcoin would go to zero is if it cannot be traded at all. Even if it goes down to a penny it still isn't zero. And too be honest I did not see 6k as a potential bottom, 4.2K was. Because that is where I drew the trend and support lines and their ranges. So we will see if $4200 holds as the cycle bottom. But I've also taken note of $3600 and $2800. In 2015 the price spent a very short amount of time at it's lows,~4 days majority under $200. IMO if a price seems unsustainable it could be the bottom or the top. I can't say yet if this price is sustainable, but i'm thinking the fact other markets are crashing at the same time is contributing and could make it go lower. But if we go lower than the top of the last cycle that has really only happened once before and that's if you count mid 2013 and late 2013 has two different cycles, imo mid 2013 looks more like a bear trap. $1300 or lower. Given that $4000-4200 is a fairly solid support line form 2017 it could be the low. Also the volatility tells it's own story. It's a wait and see situation. People make the statement "were following 2014-15 to a tee" they are ALSO saying the bottom will be in Nov-Jan AND we will see the end of the bear market before summer ends next year. And we are very close to the actual bottom. Now if people opened their minds to the idea and FACT that market cycles are never the exact same length and magnitude then they realize. The end of this bear market(beginning of next bull) should be anytime between May 2019 and January 2020.