Bitcoin Stock to Flow Price 2021 Extrapolation

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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin/Dólar Americano
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Hello, folks!
Today we will talk about price prediction based on a famous indicator in the crypto community: Bitcoin Stock to Flow (S2F) , created by PlanB (@100TrillionUSD on twitter ).

As we know, this indicator measures current yearly production of coins versus available coins in circulation, and estimates the price range in each 4 year cycle (period between halvings).

Here we will use historical peak prices predicted by this indicator in past cycles (before all-time-highs) and try to predict the top price in this cycle.

From the graph, we can see that S2F (purple line) predicts a mean range for the price AFTER the All-time-high and the all-time-high always were greater than local peaks of the indicator.

So, our method consisted on taking the highest peak of S2F indicator (before the ATH ) and compare that to ATH , calculating the ratio between them.

From the 2013 and 2017 cycles, we got ratios of 349% and 109% respectively.

As we know that Bitcoin volatility is reducing in each cycle, we took the ratio between the 2013 and 2017 ratios and we saw that 2017 ratio was 31% of the 2013 ratio.

So, we expect that the ratio between the greatest S2F indicator and next ATH will be 31% of that from 2017, which give us a 33,8% ratio, i.e, the ATH would be 33,8% greater than the highest S2F in this cycle.

Finally, that would give us a top around 200k USD.

Also, we see that the current price is very similar to the S2F predicted price and the S2F is floating around 60k level.

This gives us a insight that the 60k level will be very important after the bullrun ends (2022/2023).

For today, that´s all .



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