Bitcoin is at the crossroads - again. Are we finally staying on this level above 550 US Dollar and slowly going up again. Or is this just the start of a much larger downtrend?
At least the accumulation/distribution indicator is showing an uptrend and the Keltner channel and weighted moving average shows we might get stable and could still bounce - before we face a multiple month long downtrend. I'm still very skeptic based on most other indicators.
Fun fact: We are now 1088 days away from the first Bitstamp BTC price chart data since 2011-08-19 and today is 2014-08-12.
I typically try to keep a business demeanor... but wow, that's one psychedelic chart =)
MarvinMartian
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> Bitcoin is at the crossroads - again. Are we finally staying on this level above 550 US Dollar and slowly going up again. Or is this just the start of a much larger downtrend?
This is an interesting question. Looking at historical volume, people are 'bought in" at above $550. And we specifically know someone is bought in for 30k BTC at some price when BTC was $580-$640.
Now, of course their good hopes won't buoy BTC's price, but we also know they "probably" won't liquidate below their buy in.
But I do worry about everyone that has purchased above the $200 mark. They are probably happy to get 200-250% return on their coin and don't want to see that margin shrink.
I think it is THOSE people we have to worry about, depressing the price now.
ChartArt
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I agree. And there are going to be A LOT of people who bought below $200 who don't want to see their profit margin shrink further. And the bagholders who bought above $600 are adding to the resistance from above - to get at least some money out of the falling price.
Now that we broke today way below $550 ($525) the Bitcoin chart might in a few weeks look like the Litecoin chart does look now already - failed support after failed support area - decline after decline. If the price doesn't stabilize at $450. But the problem is that the entire Bitcoin chart will look like a double top - if the price falls down to $450.
No12
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+1 for making me feel dizzy :D
MoonTrader
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Nice chart. Do you have any info on using fib circles?
ChartArt
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This is how I use the Fibonacci circle: Pick the lowest relevant recent low (on my chart above it's $360) and connect it with the highest relevant recent high price ($680 on my chart) and most of the time new surrounding patterns emerge with the Fibonacci circle. It's a little bit like using Bollinger bands or Ichimoku clouds, you see more correlations when you add the indicator.