I’ve been wondering why there are so many chartists willing to bet that BTC is about to correct back down to 30k or lower, but now understand that this belief is routed in a misinterpretation of the Elliott Wave structure of the recent Bitcoin correction. Let me explain...
An incorrect ABC wave count of the Bitcoin correction might look like the following chart, where A was the June low and B the recent high, projecting wave C to fall below B.
However, this is a misunderstanding of the structure of the correction down to the bottom of the June low. A correct interpretation would instead view the origin of wave A starting on March 13, as below.
This is an Irregular Expanded Flat corrective structure in Elliott Wave theory. It has the form of a 3-3-5 sub-wave pattern, and is identified as irregular because the peak of the B-wave rises above the origin of the A-wave.
The total structure, including sub-wave counts and with a Fibonacci projection of Wave A from B forecasting the bottom, is shown in the chart at the top.
For the doubters, there are three proofs to this proposition:
The wave pattern from A to B is an ABC wave pattern in three phases. If not part of a corrective movement as proposed, this would otherwise be required to be an impulsive structure of 5 waves.
The movement down from B to C is a 5 wave impulse, necessary to complete the Elliott Wave Flat correction.
If the movement to the June 22 low from the 65K high was Wave A of a correction, it would be in a 3 wave movement rather than the 5 wave movement observed.
Therefore, the only structure that fits the price action is an Irregular Expanded Flat Elliott Wave correction, which completed on June 22, 2021.
If you disagree, please feel free to explain yourself in the comments.
Comentário
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What I thought was a sharp correction to Wave 2 has turned into more well structure ABC correction to a lower-low. If support at 39K fails, this corrective structure threatens to become a downward impulse waveform, which might bode poorly for BTC and alt markets for the remainder of the year. But I still doubt that will materialise.
I donot understand most people short. We are in most bull market.
choilove5
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totally agree with you
art91726
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By now this pattern invalidated or still in play @Crypto-Swing ? 🙏
Crypto-Swing
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@art91726, No, I do not believe it is invalidated, but wave 2 has formed a more pronounced ABC correction to a lower-low. Which will need the target high for wave 3 to be adjusted. I'll post an update to show that. :heart:
newglobal666
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Jongens!!,(de bitcoin bodem verrast vriend en vijand!!!.)
bitcoin gaat binnenkort naar $28,723.00!!!.
uiteindelijke bodem is $22,718.00 á $18,751.00!!!.
Je gaat het werkelijk met eigen ogen zien!!!!!!!!.
dus het is gewoon verstandig en geduldig afwachten én op de bodem Volop inkopen voor maximale winst!!!!!!!!!!!!,(daarna gáát bitcoin alleen maar sky high tot zo'n $80,000.00 á 100,000.00!!!! alt coins die GÁÁN naar de maan van af de bodem van de bitcoin!!
Je zult me eeuwig dankbaar zijn!!!!!!!!!!
bitcoin bodem zal rond eind oktober zijn!!!!.
(maar voor die tijd zal up en downs zijn en het alle verstandigst is gewoon afwachten op de bodem zónder enige volle stress én emoties!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.)
als bitcoin naar $38,000.00 én week sluiting onder $40,000.00 zal consolidatie enige weken duren!.
óf als bitcoin crasht gelijk met kracht naar $38,000.00 zal ook meteen gelijk naar $58,000.00 én hierbij ook tweede optie vol op inkopen voor ruim 50% koers winst bitcoin!!!(daarna gaat bitcoin alleen maar naar beneden tot de bodem zoals boven omschreven!!!!.
veel sterkte en succes!!!!!!!!!!.
Crypto-Swing
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@newglobal666, Thanks for your enthusiastic response. I find your perspective interesting, even if I do not agree. You are missing a lot of important context that contradicts your belief, I reckon. I suppose you will only know definitively that you are wrong what BTC gets back over 65k. The good news is that you don't have long to wait. Early October is likely for a new all-time high, imo. ❤🙏
BurakGungor
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@newglobal666, eindelijk iemand die verstand heeft over BTC! Ipv die moonboys die zeggen dat BTC eind 2021 naar 300k! Keep going bro
tobygood
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kirby say bull so onl long
SKNMT
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@Crypto-Swing Can you please explain "If the movement to the June 22 low from the 65K high was Wave A of a correction, it would be in a 3 wave movement rather than the 5 wave movement observed."
Why wouldn't you consider 5 wave movement as Wave A of a correction (ABC as 5-3-5 ZigZag)?
Additionally, if we consider recent correction as wave 4 of larger cycle, timescale is unabalanced comparing to wave 2 (100 days vs 260 days).
SKNMT
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Regarding the first proof "If not part of a corrective movement as proposed, this would otherwise be required to be an impulsive structure of 5 waves", actually it is a 5-wave structure. It's a contracting ending diagonal of wave 5.